Elgin Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$294,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Elgin floor plan is a beautifully designed one-story home that balances functionality and style. Offering four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this layout provides generous living space ideal for families or those who love to entertain. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed ensuite bathroom. A two-car garage adds convenience and additional storage options. Whether you're looking for a home that offers comfort, flexibility, or modern living, the Elgin floor plan is designed to meet your needs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 222 days

🏗️ New construction. The $294,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,545.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 39% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,036 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.93%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,545
• List price: $294,990
• Delta: -1.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1313 Wicklow St	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-3%)	23mo	$309,990	$168	64
510 Sabino Sky Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,889 (-0%)	2mo	$274,995	$146	62
106 Abilene Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,088 (+10%)	4mo	$439,999	$211	62
519 Acker St	0.16mi	4/1.5	2,092 (+10%)	14mo	$309,000	$148	61
131 Amarrillo Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,153 (+14%)	3mo	$369,990	$172	56
232 Harlingen Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-14%)	0mo	$259,990	$159	54
213 Harlingen Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,841 (-3%)	19mo	$299,990	$163	54
613 Emerald Blossom Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,802 (-5%)	12mo	$299,000	$166	43
229 Harlingen Dr	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,153 (+14%)	16mo	$339,990	$158	41
17702 Rolling Hills Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,856 (-2%)	20mo	$250,000	$135	40
626 Kelly Rd Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+6%)	20mo	$875,000	$435	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $126,616
• Equity at exit: $268,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $387,575
• Equity at exit: $580,006

Cash invested: $83,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$373 /mo · $4,478/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,612

Max offer price $228,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-380	+0% $-483	+5% $-586	+10% $-689
Rent	-10% $-641	-5% $-562	+0% $-483	+5% $-404	+10% $-325
Rate	-1.0pp $-333	-0.5pp $-407	base $-483	+0.5pp $-560	+1.0pp $-639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,636
• Closing costs: $8,956
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
41523 Stampede Strem Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	26d	1	0.79mi
627 Coyote Canyon Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,024	$1.44	0d	1	0.79mi
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	26d	1	0.93mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$1,966	$0.84	0d	1	0.95mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.96mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	23d	1	1.21mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	23d	1	1.22mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	26d	1	1.24mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	1.30mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	6d	1	1.32mi
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	1.34mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,990 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,990 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,990 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,990 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,990 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,990 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,990 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,990 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,990 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,990 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,990 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-03-07
    price $294,990 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    The Elgin floor plan is a beautifully designed one-story home that balances functionality and style. Offering four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this layout provides generous living space ideal for families or those who love to entertain. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed ensuite bathroom. A two-car garage adds convenience and additional storage options. Whether you're looking for a home that offers comfort, flexibility, or modern living, the Elgin floor plan is designed to meet your needs.

16. 2025-11-11
    listed $293,990 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    The Elgin floor plan is a beautifully designed one-story home that balances functionality and style. Offering four bedrooms and two bathrooms, this layout provides generous living space ideal for families or those who love to entertain. The open-concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. The primary suite serves as a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed ensuite bathroom. A two-car garage adds convenience and additional storage options. Whether you're looking for a home that offers comfort, flexibility, or modern living, the Elgin floor plan is designed to meet your needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,723
• − Property taxes: −$4,478
• − Insurance: −$1,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,685
• Taxable loss: −$11,215
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,692
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Magnolia, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $294,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Listed $293,990 Zillow