None · Payson, AZ 85541

$114,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Land public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1969 5,663 sqft lot $192/sqft · 94% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared for older mobile home on a fenced lot. Includes 2 storage buildings, 220 electric plug in is available outside for RV hookup of power use. Open kitchen area has room for small table. Furnishings can be included. Bathroom has been remodeled with nice walk in shower. Bathroom has washer and dryer hookups, but appliances have been moved to outside storage.

Key facts

• Open kitchen area
• Remodeled bathroom
• Storage buildings

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• RV HOOKUP
• OPEN KITCHEN AREA
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $115k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,559 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.50%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,000
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 101.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $983
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $25,978
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $519/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $878

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $114,900 Pending 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-02-24
    listed $117,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Well cared for older mobile home on a fenced lot. Includes 2 storage buildings, 220 electric plug in is available outside for RV hookup of power use. Open kitchen area has room for small table. Furnishings can be included. Bathroom has been remodeled with nice walk in shower. Bathroom has washer and dryer hookups, but appliances have been moved to outside storage.

11. 2016-10-20
    soldstatus $55,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    FRESH NEW CARPET AND VINYL INSTALLED. HOME BOASTS OF DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. COOLER IS ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF OLD - USED VERY LITTLE. NICE AWNING RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE UNIT. YARD IS COMPLETELY FENCED. TWO SHEDS IN THE BACK YARD. GREAT STARTER HOME OR CHEAPER SUMMER RETREAT. SELLER LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA. SELLER HAS NEVER LIVED IN THE HOME AND IS SELLING AS IS.

12. 2016-10-20
    soldstatus $55,000

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    FRESH NEW CARPET AND VINYL INSTALLED. HOME BOASTS OF DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. COOLER IS ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF OLD - USED VERY LITTLE. NICE AWNING RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE UNIT. YARD IS COMPLETELY FENCED. TWO SHEDS IN THE BACK YARD. GREAT STARTER HOME OR CHEAPER SUMMER RETREAT. SELLER LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA. SELLER HAS NEVER LIVED IN THE HOME AND IS SELLING AS IS.

13. 2016-07-30
    listed $59,500 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    FRESH NEW CARPET AND VINYL INSTALLED. HOME BOASTS OF DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS. COOLER IS ABOUT A YEAR AND A HALF OLD - USED VERY LITTLE. NICE AWNING RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE UNIT. YARD IS COMPLETELY FENCED. TWO SHEDS IN THE BACK YARD. GREAT STARTER HOME OR CHEAPER SUMMER RETREAT. SELLER LICENSED REAL ESTATE AGENT IN THE STATE OF ARIZONA. SELLER HAS NEVER LIVED IN THE HOME AND IS SELLING AS IS.

14. 2009-10-08
    soldstatus $45,000
15. 2009-10-08
    soldstatus $45,000
16. 2009-03-24
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $519 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $758 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$519
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $1,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,242/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+160.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $117,000 ARMLS
• 2016-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CAAR
• 2016-07-30 Listed $59,500 CAAR
• 2009-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-08 Sold (MLS) $45,000 CAAR
• 2009-03-24 Listed $45,000 CAAR

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $519 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.