4524 Old Fort Bayou Rd · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$173,619

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1970 10,454 sqft lot $120/sqft · 14% above area Est $152k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTORS!!! Located just off Washington Avenue and only minutes from downtown Ocean Springs, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers incredible potential in a highly desirable area. With quick access to I-10, commuting to Biloxi, Pascagoula, or Mobile is a breeze. The home features three bedrooms, one full bath, and two bonus rooms that could serve as an office or flex spaces. With the right vision and updates, this property could be transformed into a fantastic primary residence, rental, or flip. This is a fixer-upper and will need repairs and updates -- perfect for investors or buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Opportunities in this location don't last long! Bring your contractor and your imagination -- schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Two bonus rooms
• Quick access to i-10
• Fixer-upper

Tags

• HIGHLY DESIRABLE AREA
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-10
• TWO BONUS ROOMS
• FIXER-UPPER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.6% in Gulf Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 718 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,993 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.26%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,425
• List price: $173,619
• Delta: 13.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13101 Cambridge Blvd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-0%)	0mo	$210,240	$146	76
6513 Lancaster Blvd	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,355 (-6%)	4mo	$183,000	$135	68
6601 Lancaster Blvd	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,554 (+8%)	6mo	$194,999	$125	66
13525 Garland Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	0mo	$299,990	$217	65
6321 Chaucer Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-9%)	2mo	$230,000	$175	65
13101 Horseshoe Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-12%)	2mo	$229,000	$179	64
6500 Lancaster Blvd	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,580 (+9%)	2mo	$219,900	$139	63
6688 Balboa Cir	0.24mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-10%)	1mo	$185,000	$142	62
7212 Greenbriar St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,562 (+8%)	1mo	$75,000	$48	60
6237 Browning Dr	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,374 (-5%)	4mo	$159,500	$116	60
13013 Cambridge Blvd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+10%)	2mo	$234,000	$147	58
13513 Garland Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,659 (+15%)	1mo	$319,990	$193	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,376
• Equity at exit: $25,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,519
• Equity at exit: $15,011

Cash invested: $48,613 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 718
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$910
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,390

Max offer price $173,619

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $343	+0% $294	+5% $245	+10% $196
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $225	+0% $294	+5% $364	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $382	-0.5pp $338	base $294	+0.5pp $249	+1.0pp $204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,405
• Closing costs: $5,209
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6721 Washington Ave Ocean Springs, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1084	$1,696	$1.56	14d	12	0.44mi
6249 Tennyson Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,600	$1.17	22d	1	0.54mi
6217 Browning Dr Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.58mi
12293 Massachusetts Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	45d	1	1.11mi
12297 Massachusetts Rd Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,595	$1.39	22d	1	1.11mi
2401 Esplanade St Unit B Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,225	$0.98	22d	1	1.11mi
2501 Gladiolus St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $173,619 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $173,619 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $173,619 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $173,619 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $173,619 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $173,619 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $173,619 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $173,619 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $173,619 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $173,619 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $173,619 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $173,619 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $173,619 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $173,619 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $173,619 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $173,619 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $173,619 Active 87 DOM
18. 2026-03-04
    listed $173,619 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (754 chars)

    INVESTORS!!! Located just off Washington Avenue and only minutes from downtown Ocean Springs, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers incredible potential in a highly desirable area. With quick access to I-10, commuting to Biloxi, Pascagoula, or Mobile is a breeze. The home features three bedrooms, one full bath, and two bonus rooms that could serve as an office or flex spaces. With the right vision and updates, this property could be transformed into a fantastic primary residence, rental, or flip. This is a fixer-upper and will need repairs and updates -- perfect for investors or buyers looking to renovate and build equity. Opportunities in this location don't last long! Bring your contractor and your imagination -- schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,725
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$5,051
• Taxable income: $738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$177
• After-tax cash flow: $3,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Listed $173,619 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.