10035 Mills Station Rd #161 · Rancho Cordova, CA 95827

$107,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Manufactured · 78 Days on market

Built 1971 $73/sqft · 23% below area Est $140k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cordovan Estates All Age Park features this spacious property which provides 2 bedroom with walk-in closets, 2 bathrooms, laminate flooring, free standing gas range, granite counters, indoor laundry area. close to the freeway and shopping. There's a cute little dog in a cage.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971
• Listed 77 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $858 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Sacramento City Unified (urban): math 32% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #804 of 1,400 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $743 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,050 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.21%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,828
• List price: $107,500
• Delta: -23.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3106 Redcoat Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-1%)	2mo	$245,000	$168	78
50 Shrine Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+4%)	7mo	$142,000	$92	76
10035 Mills Station Rd #42	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-2%)	10mo	$150,000	$104	76
109 Septer	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+5%)	12mo	$150,000	$97	71
2950 Routier Rd #99	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+4%)	11mo	$105,000	$68	71
2950 Routier Rd #9	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,490 (+1%)	12mo	$169,000	$113	70
3116 Tory Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-7%)	10mo	$68,000	$50	66
3126 Tory Ln #86	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-2%)	11mo	$167,000	$116	66
2950 Routier Rd #42	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,384 (-6%)	10mo	$120,000	$87	65
2950 Routier Rd #45	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-9%)	9mo	$90,000	$67	65
3109 Redcoat Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,534 (+4%)	17mo	$209,000	$136	61
2950 Routier Rd #73	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-12%)	13mo	$149,950	$115	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $36,062
• Equity at exit: $16,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.22×
• Total profit: $97,043
• Equity at exit: $9,295

Cash invested: $30,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95827

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$564
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,612/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $107,500

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $932	-5% $895	+0% $858	+5% $821	+10% $784
Rent	-10% $698	-5% $778	+0% $858	+5% $938	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $912	-0.5pp $885	base $858	+0.5pp $830	+1.0pp $802

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,875
• Closing costs: $3,225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Routier Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$1,995	$2.53	3d	15	0.21mi
2850 La Loma Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,800	$1.96	9d	1	0.49mi
3250 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,275	$2.24	3d	6	0.50mi
3329 Routier Rd Unit 3329 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	979	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.50mi
10169 Crawford Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$2,150	$2.34	25d	1	0.52mi
2625 El Parque Cir Unit D Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	45d	1	0.54mi
10181 De Soto Way Unit 10181 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$1,950	$2.13	4d	1	0.56mi
3226 Laurelhurst Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,900	$1.88	25d	1	0.56mi
2961 Portsmouth Dr Unit 4 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,650	$1.83	13d	1	0.58mi
10281 Mills Station Rd Unit 12 Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	5d	1	0.58mi
10108 Malaga Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	765	$1,776	$2.32	9d	1	0.59mi
10158 De Soto Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	17d	1	0.60mi
10136 Ellenwood Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,375	$1.67	45d	1	0.66mi
9952 Vanguard Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,450	$2.10	13d	1	0.80mi
10407 White Rock Rd Unit B Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	45d	1	0.82mi
10069 Lincoln Village Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	882	$2,049	$2.32	5d	1	0.98mi
3466 Data Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$2,411	$2.52	3d	8	1.03mi
3337 Union Springs Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1543	$2,595	$1.68	45d	1	1.23mi
3100 Explorer Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,575	$1.87	17d	1	1.24mi
9849 Lincoln Village Dr Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	1.32mi
10495 Malaga Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1203	$2,495	$2.07	21d	1	1.37mi
2910 Weston Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	1.0	1098	$2,460	$2.24	11d	1	1.40mi
1200 Gary Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,495	$1.76	16d	1	1.43mi
1111 McClaren Dr Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	1440	$2,335	$1.62	11d	1	1.45mi
10524 Croetto Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	5d	1	1.46mi
10524 Croetto Way Unit 1 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	926	$1,500	$1.62	25d	1	1.46mi
3600 Kobias Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1257	$2,650	$2.11	25d	1	1.46mi
2643 Furmint Way Unit 3 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	946	$1,695	$1.79	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $107,500 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,500 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 276-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,500 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,500 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,500 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,500 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $107,500 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,500 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $107,500 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,500 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $107,500 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,500 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,500 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,500 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,500 Active 57 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,318
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,022
• − Property taxes: −$1,612
• − Insurance: −$538
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$3,127
• Taxable income: $9,128
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,191
• After-tax cash flow: $8,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sacramento City Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633840
• Math proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,280
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10000
• State rank: #804 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,742
• Household income: $85,841
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.22%
• Current HPI: 349.4168
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $167 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.