14525 Sage Bloom Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$251,740

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $269k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step through the front porch into a foyer that leads to two bedrooms and a full bath near the front of the home. A coat closet and linen storage are located just off the hallway for added convenience. At the center of the home, the kitchen opens to the family room, creating a connected main living area. The primary bedroom is located at the back and features a walk-in closet and a primary bath. A patio is accessible through the family room, and the two-car garage connects to the home through a hallway near the secondary bedrooms.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Front porch
• Patio accessible

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• COAT CLOSET
• LINEN STORAGE
• KITCHEN OPENS TO FAMILY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PATIO ACCESSIBLE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed price available (spec home)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling via heat pump; Central air
• Home design: Spec new construction — Plan name: Atlantis
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,200

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $252k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $209,584 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14521 Bonellis Pass	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$232,291	$194	90
14625 Bonellis Pass	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	8mo	$243,945	$203	88
14624 Wahlbergs Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	78
14600 Wahlbergs Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+9%)	4mo	$292,900	$224	76
14604 Wahlbergs Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$249,900	$232	75
18308 Stellers Sea St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	3mo	$229,900	$214	73
18420 Stellers Sea St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	2mo	$252,900	$235	72
14705 Eagles Claw Way	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	2mo	$255,900	$238	71
18404 Stellers Sea St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	4mo	$277,900	$258	71
18232 Stellers Sea St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-10%)	8mo	$257,900	$240	70
248 Heritage Mill Trl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,074 (-10%)	5mo	$232,040	$216	50
228 Lavender Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,306 (+9%)	11mo	$277,410	$212	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $132,039
• Equity at exit: $226,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $393,620
• Equity at exit: $489,075

Cash invested: $70,487 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,096 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,320
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,776/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $239,584

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,935
• Closing costs: $7,552
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.02mi
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	11d	1	0.11mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	19d	1	0.18mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	0.57mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.92mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	2d	6	1.03mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $251,740 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $251,740 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $251,740 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $251,740 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 535-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $251,740 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,101
• − Property taxes: −$3,776
• − Insurance: −$1,259
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,012
• − Management: −$2,012
• − Depreciation: −$7,323
• Taxable loss: −$5,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and replacing the window blinds to further enhance its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value.
• Resale Replace window blinds — Improves home's aesthetic and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Resale Replace window blinds — Improves home's aesthetic and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B