20228 Lewis Ln · Kiln, MS 39466

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 197 Days on market

Built 1968 0.64 ac lot $172/sqft · 12% below area Est $209k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a home that offers comfort, peace, and a fresh start. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath property features a brand-new walk-in shower, fresh paint throughout, and new flooring that gives every room a clean, modern feel. The layout is simple, functional, and ready for everyday living. Beyond the front door, you will find yourself in a spot that makes daily life convenient and enjoyable. Everyday errands are easy with nearby grocery stores, shops, and local restaurants throughout Picayune and Kiln. Also close by are Friendship Park and The Crosby Arboretum - perfect for quiet walks, photography, or simply enjoying nature. This home offers a solid blend of updates, practicality and location with its fresh interior and local amenities nearby giving you the opportunity to settle into an easygoing lifestyle while still adding your own personal touches over time.

Key facts

• Crosby arboretum
• Fresh paint
• New flooring

Tags

• WALK-IN SHOWER
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• FRIENDSHIP PARK
• CROSBY ARBORETUM
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (9.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Kiln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#69 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hancock County School District (rural): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #23 of 130 in MS (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,364 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.23%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,402
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -11.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-36,196
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-39,744
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39466

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $853/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $167,973

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 178 DOM
17. 2025-12-03
    listed $190,000 Active 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Welcome to a home that offers comfort, peace, and a fresh start. This 3 bedroom, 1 bath property features a brand-new walk-in shower, fresh paint throughout, and new flooring that gives every room a clean, modern feel. The layout is simple, functional, and ready for everyday living. Beyond the front door, you will find yourself in a spot that makes daily life convenient and enjoyable. Everyday errands are easy with nearby grocery stores, shops, and local restaurants throughout Picayune and Kiln. Also close by are Friendship Park and The Crosby Arboretum - perfect for quiet walks, photography, or simply enjoying nature. This home offers a solid blend of updates, practicality and location with its fresh interior and local amenities nearby giving you the opportunity to settle into an easygoing lifestyle while still adding your own personal touches over time.

18. 2024-01-29
    soldstatus
19. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus Closed 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Situated in a tranquil country atmosphere, this home provides a peaceful retreat away from the noise and congestion of urban life. Enjoy the sight of a neighboring property featuring a serene pond and graceful horses, adding to the charm and tranquility of the surroundings. Although this property requires some tender loving care (TLC), it presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The listing price of this home has been set below its appraised value, offering potential buyers a chance to secure a great deal and increase their investment. The property is being sold in its current condition, providing buyers the flexibility to renovate and customize the home according to their preferences.

20. 2023-12-09
    status Pending 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Situated in a tranquil country atmosphere, this home provides a peaceful retreat away from the noise and congestion of urban life. Enjoy the sight of a neighboring property featuring a serene pond and graceful horses, adding to the charm and tranquility of the surroundings. Although this property requires some tender loving care (TLC), it presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The listing price of this home has been set below its appraised value, offering potential buyers a chance to secure a great deal and increase their investment. The property is being sold in its current condition, providing buyers the flexibility to renovate and customize the home according to their preferences.

21. 2023-10-30
    price $65,000 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Situated in a tranquil country atmosphere, this home provides a peaceful retreat away from the noise and congestion of urban life. Enjoy the sight of a neighboring property featuring a serene pond and graceful horses, adding to the charm and tranquility of the surroundings. Although this property requires some tender loving care (TLC), it presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The listing price of this home has been set below its appraised value, offering potential buyers a chance to secure a great deal and increase their investment. The property is being sold in its current condition, providing buyers the flexibility to renovate and customize the home according to their preferences.

22. 2023-08-16
    price $75,000 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Situated in a tranquil country atmosphere, this home provides a peaceful retreat away from the noise and congestion of urban life. Enjoy the sight of a neighboring property featuring a serene pond and graceful horses, adding to the charm and tranquility of the surroundings. Although this property requires some tender loving care (TLC), it presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The listing price of this home has been set below its appraised value, offering potential buyers a chance to secure a great deal and increase their investment. The property is being sold in its current condition, providing buyers the flexibility to renovate and customize the home according to their preferences.

23. 2023-01-20
    listed $85,000 Active 750-char remark

    Show marketing remark (750 chars)

    Situated in a tranquil country atmosphere, this home provides a peaceful retreat away from the noise and congestion of urban life. Enjoy the sight of a neighboring property featuring a serene pond and graceful horses, adding to the charm and tranquility of the surroundings. Although this property requires some tender loving care (TLC), it presents an excellent opportunity for buyers looking to add their personal touch. The listing price of this home has been set below its appraised value, offering potential buyers a chance to secure a great deal and increase their investment. The property is being sold in its current condition, providing buyers the flexibility to renovate and customize the home according to their preferences.

24. 1999-08-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $853 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 71.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$853
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hancock County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801740
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,971
• Composite: 38.88/100
• National rank: #4099
• State rank: #23 of 130 in MS

Livability — Kiln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #69
• US rank: #9853

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,583
• Population (ZIP): 28,292

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.32%
• Current HPI: 194.6541
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+123.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-03 Listed $190,000 MLSU
• 2024-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-01-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-12-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-10-30 Price Changed $65,000 MLSU
• 2023-08-16 Price Changed $75,000 MLSU
• 2023-01-20 Listed $85,000 MLSU
• 1999-08-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $853 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.