27 Crestwood Dr #116 · Middletown, IN 47356

$69,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Fair condition $58/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 98 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 5.1% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#235 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shenandoah School Corporation (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #118 of 301 in IN (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #304 of 994 statewide, top 31%, 624 students, 46% FRL); Shenandoah Middle School (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #186 of 330 statewide, top 57%, 298 students, 44% FRL); Shenandoah High School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C, #64 of 369 statewide, top 18%, 410 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $63,699 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.54%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,275
• List price: $69,999
• Delta: -63.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Earl Ave	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+8%)	7mo	$276,000	$211	77
902 Progress St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,195 (-2%)	2mo	$154,000	$129	72
879 Earl Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+11%)	11mo	$190,000	$141	57
1213 W Mill St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,107 (-9%)	9mo	$195,000	$176	53
850 Progress St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-14%)	0mo	$173,000	$166	53
511 Maple St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-9%)	8mo	$90,000	$82	52
252 N 6th St	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+4%)	13mo	$120,000	$95	47
510 N 12th St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,131 (-7%)	19mo	$191,500	$169	47
224 N 5th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,314 (+8%)	4mo	$166,900	$127	45
511 N 10th St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,118 (-8%)	22mo	$190,000	$170	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $13,160
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $43,058
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $77,999 ($65/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 20% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +138.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 47356

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,099 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $69,999

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $409	+0% $384	+5% $360	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $341	+0% $384	+5% $428	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $402	base $384	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 S Crestwood Dr Middletown, IN	3.0–4.0	2.0	1136	$1,099	$0.97	9d	3	0.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $76,999

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasElectricity (standard service)Public water and sewer (not explicitly listed)
• Home design: Single-level living area (1,216)Spec home — Northstar plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Spec plan: Northstar)

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $69,999 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $69,999 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $69,999 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $69,999 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-07-12
   days on market $69,999 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $69,999 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-07-11
   days on market $69,999 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $69,999 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-07-08
   days on market $69,999 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-07-07
    days on market $69,999 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,999 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $69,999 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-07-04
    days on market $69,999 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-07-03
    days on market $69,999 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-07-02
    days on market $69,999 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-07-01
    days on market $69,999 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-06-30
    days on market $69,999 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-06-29
    days on market $69,999 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-06-28
    days on market $69,999 Active 81 DOM
20. 2026-06-27
    days on market $69,999 Active 80 DOM
21. 2026-06-26
    days on market $69,999 Active 78 DOM
22. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,999 Active 75 DOM
23. 2026-06-21
    days on market $69,999 Active 74 DOM
24. 2026-06-19
    days on market $69,999 Active 72 DOM
25. 2026-06-18
    days on market $69,999 Active 71 DOM
26. 2026-06-17
    days on market $69,999 Active 70 DOM
27. 2026-06-16
    days on market $69,999 Active 69 DOM
28. 2026-06-15
    days on market $69,999 Active 68 DOM
29. 2026-06-14
    days on market $69,999 Active 66 DOM
30. 2026-06-12
    days on market $69,999 Active 65 DOM
31. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,999 Active 62 DOM
32. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,999 Active 61 DOM
33. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,999 Active 60 DOM
34. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,999 Active 57 DOM
35. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,999 Active 56 DOM
36. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,999 Active 55 DOM
37. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,999 Active 54 DOM
38. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,999 Active 53 DOM
39. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,999 Active 52 DOM
40. 2026-05-13
    price $69,999
41. 2026-04-29
    price $76,999
42. 2026-04-09
    listed $79,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,055
• − Management: −$1,055
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,721
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$893
• After-tax cash flow: $3,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This single-family home is in fair condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting and landscaping improvements can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Aesthetic improvements can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Shenandoah Elementary School D IN #304/994 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Shenandoah Middle School F IN #186/330 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Shenandoah High School C IN #64/369 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1808280
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,961
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4723
• State rank: #118 of 301 in IN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #235
• US rank: #10188

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, IN
• County: Henry · 48,028 people
• Population (ZIP): 5,508
• Household income: $68,654
• Rent vs Own: 22.4% rent · 77.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,028 people
• By 2030: 47,125 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 44,820 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 42,207 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 35,814 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 26,779 · -44.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.7) · D 25.3% · R 73.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.9pp · 2024: -47.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.7 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+3.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.87%
• Current HPI: 240.0691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $76,999

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gasElectricity (standard service)Public water and sewer (not explicitly listed)
• Home design: Single-level living area (1,216)Spec home — Northstar plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Active listing (Spec plan: Northstar)