5 Hillside Cir #1 · Lincoln, NH 03251

$615,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,582 sqft · Condo · 100 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition $389/sqft · at area comps Est $598k · at est. $1055/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Appreciation +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the desirable Forest Ridge community on Hillside Circle, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath townhouse offers a serene White Mountains retreat just minutes from Loon Mountain and downtown Lincoln. Thoughtfully designed across multiple levels, the home features a bright and inviting open living, dining, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings or entertaining guests. Large windows fill the space with natural light and showcase the surrounding wooded landscape. The primary suite on the first floor provides privacy and comfort, while two additional bedrooms upstairs offer flexible space for family, guests, or rental potential. With three full baths, the layout easily accommodates larger groups. Owners and guests enjoy the amenity-rich Forest Ridge Sports Club, including indoor and outdoor pools, hot tubs, fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts and walking trails. During ski season, a shuttle provides convenient access to Loon Mountain, making winter recreation effortless. Located near hiking, biking, and kayaking spots, with easy access to shops, restaurants, and seasonal events in Lincoln, this townhouse is an ideal four-season getaway or investment property. Combining comfort, convenience, and access to the White Mountains’ best recreational opportunities, 5-1 Hillside Circle is the perfect base for enjoying all that the region has to offer.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Fitness center
• Primary suite

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• PRIMARY SUITE
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $615k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $615k).
• Recommended offer: $560k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $172k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($560k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $559,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.42%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $598,407
• List price: $615,000
• Delta: 2.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $290,601
• Equity at exit: $249,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $730,474
• Equity at exit: $363,796

Cash invested: $172,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03251

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$769 /mo · $9,225/yr
• Insurance: −$256
• HOA: −$1,055
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,418
• Net cashflow: $3,791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,715

Max offer price $615,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,216	-5% $4,004	+0% $3,791	+5% $3,579	+10% $3,366
Rent	-10% $2,882	-5% $3,337	+0% $3,791	+5% $4,246	+10% $4,701
Rate	-1.0pp $4,101	-0.5pp $3,948	base $3,791	+0.5pp $3,632	+1.0pp $3,470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $153,750
• Closing costs: $18,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 Winter Way #4 Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.5	1443	$18,000	$12.47	44d	1	0.62mi
249 Pollard Rd Lincoln, NH	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,000	$1.21	45d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,055 · $12,660/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $615,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $615,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $615,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $615,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $615,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $615,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $615,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $615,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $615,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $615,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $615,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $635,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $635,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $635,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $635,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $635,000 Active 1379-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1379 chars)

    Nestled in the desirable Forest Ridge community on Hillside Circle, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath townhouse offers a serene White Mountains retreat just minutes from Loon Mountain and downtown Lincoln. Thoughtfully designed across multiple levels, the home features a bright and inviting open living, dining, and kitchen area, perfect for family gatherings or entertaining guests. Large windows fill the space with natural light and showcase the surrounding wooded landscape. The primary suite on the first floor provides privacy and comfort, while two additional bedrooms upstairs offer flexible space for family, guests, or rental potential. With three full baths, the layout easily accommodates larger groups. Owners and guests enjoy the amenity-rich Forest Ridge Sports Club, including indoor and outdoor pools, hot tubs, fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts and walking trails. During ski season, a shuttle provides convenient access to Loon Mountain, making winter recreation effortless. Located near hiking, biking, and kayaking spots, with easy access to shops, restaurants, and seasonal events in Lincoln, this townhouse is an ideal four-season getaway or investment property. Combining comfort, convenience, and access to the White Mountains’ best recreational opportunities, 5-1 Hillside Circle is the perfect base for enjoying all that the region has to offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $138,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,450
• − Property taxes: −$9,225
• − Insurance: −$3,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,054
• − Management: −$11,054
• − HOA: −$12,660
• − Depreciation: −$17,891
• Taxable income: $38,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,304
• After-tax cash flow: $36,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom townhouse in Forest Ridge offers a good condition with some minor repairs needed. Painting and new flooring can significantly boost its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Flooring — Carpeted floors show some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New flooring — New flooring can enhance the living spaces and increase appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Carpeted floors show some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring can enhance the living spaces and increase appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln-Woodstock School District
• NCES district ID: 3304260
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #9328
• State rank: #140 of 171 in NH

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #9736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, NH
• Population (ZIP): 1,484

Population outlook (Grafton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,798 people
• By 2030: 87,131 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 82,000 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 77,064 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 68,769 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 61,631 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 12% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Slovak 6% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Chinese 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grafton

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.4% · R 39.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 27.7pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.6 2016: D+19.0 2012: D+23.8 2008: D+27.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Current HPI: 531.2395
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $635,000 PrimeMLS