5515 118th St #276 · Jacksonville, FL 32244

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 168 Days on market

Built 2023

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 167 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $39,400

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Spec inventory type; Plan name 93111
• Exterior features: Address: 5515 118th St #276, Jacksonville, FL 32244

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living area approximately 896

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $760 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.68%
• DSCR: 4.63
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.25% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 81.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.67×
• Total profit: $41,004
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 84.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.43×
• Total profit: $94,178
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32244

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $760

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5558 Bennington Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	988	$1,275	$1.29	4d	1	0.54mi
5640 Bryner Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,260	$1.26	23d	1	0.58mi
5685 Marathon Pkwy Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,000	$0.99	19d	1	0.61mi
5700 Fishing Pen Creek Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	854	$1,100	$1.29	2d	8	0.72mi
5342 Seaboard Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	23d	1	0.97mi
5327 Timuquana Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,249	$1.31	1d	27	0.97mi
6063 Maggies Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1121	$1,300	$1.16	16d	2	0.98mi
5404 101st St #2 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,095	$1.68	3d	1	0.99mi
6136 Blanding Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1030	$1,752	$1.70	1d	9	1.01mi
5906 Old Timuquana Rd Lot 12 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$695	$1.16	23d	1	1.02mi
6105 Maggies Cir Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1121	$1,325	$1.18	17d	2	1.06mi
5709 Sue Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	575	$990	$1.72	23d	1	1.06mi
6100 Maggies Cir #103 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,300	$1.43	12d	1	1.08mi
5375 Ortega Farms Blvd #715 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,700	$1.67	23d	1	1.11mi
6087 Maggies Cir #104 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,275	$1.16	23d	1	1.13mi
6880 Skaff Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,285	$1.37	23d	1	1.20mi
6915 Ortega Woods Dr Unit 11 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	940	$1,150	$1.22	20d	1	1.21mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,218	$1.38	3d	10	1.31mi
4800 Ortega Farms Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	880	$1,232	$1.40	10d	9	1.31mi
5984 Windsor Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,174	$1.30	21d	2	1.35mi
5933 Jammes Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1071	$1,900	$1.77	23d	1	1.37mi
5985 Windsor Forest Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,099	$1.22	7d	1	1.37mi
5985 Windsor Forest Dr Unit 23 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$999	$1.11	21d	1	1.37mi
5985 Windsor Forest Dr Unit 15 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$999	$1.11	7d	1	1.37mi
5900 Townsend Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1177	$1,539	$1.31	3d	12	1.38mi
5951 Wilmar Rd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	706	$1,095	$1.55	23d	1	1.43mi
6408 Sweetbay Ln Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	951	$1,225	$1.29	16d	1	1.48mi
6433 Breezy Oaks Way Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	952	$1,295	$1.36	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 158 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $39,900 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,400 Active 150 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,027
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,167
• After-tax cash flow: $6,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 63,592
• Household income: $62,204
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2799.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.22%
• Current HPI: 296.5375
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.25%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B