251 Patterson Rd Unit G32 · Haines City, FL 33844

$108,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 870 sqft · Manufactured · 321 Days on market

Built 1990 3,001 sqft lot $79/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

YOU OWN THE LAND !!!!This great furnished home is located in a 55+ community, 2B/2B with an open floor plan. Great kitchen area with lots of space to move around. Bathroom has a skylight that lets in lots of light. Great master bedroom with plenty of storage. The home was fitted with double pane windows to keep the home cool in the summer and warm in the winter. Air conditioning has been updated in 2016, the roof updated 2017, front deck was DONE IN March 2021, and the plumbing was replaced May 2021. First of all, it's gated with 2 entrances, there is a recreational building, heated swimming pool, miniature golf. This community is close to shopping, hospitals and specialty clinics and of co

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Front deck
• Double pane windows

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SKYLIGHT IN BATHROOM
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED AIR CONDITIONING
• UPDATED ROOF
• FRONT DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total living area about 870 square feet; Lot is paved and on asphalt road; Lot size about 0.07 acres (approx. 279 sq meters)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA with required dues; Monthly HOA approximately $79.58 (annual fee $955); Community amenities: clubhouse, gated community, pool, pickleball courts; Senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Located in a gated community
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water available; Water connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Attached property; One level; Southeast-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other-type roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Storage shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Crawlspace foundation (utility access)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Window treatments; Skylights; Blinds and shades
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $108k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $386 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $108k).
• Recommended offer: $95k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $747 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.31%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,356
• Equity at exit: $16,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $24,703
• Equity at exit: $9,338

Cash invested: $30,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$566
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $386

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,045

Max offer price $108,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,000
• Closing costs: $3,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	23d	1	0.05mi
1246 Westwinds Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,905	$1.70	10d	1	0.70mi
2896 Kokomo Loop Unit 1259817P Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$6,692	$5.98	19d	1	0.80mi
1052 Windsor Rd Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,799	$1.89	11d	14	1.18mi
220 Champions Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1107	$1,726	$1.56	2d	7	1.21mi
1004 Hemingway Cir Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	845	$1,300	$1.54	3d	1	1.22mi
1003 Hemingway Cir Unit 1003 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	846	$1,200	$1.42	23d	1	1.23mi
2109 N 13th St Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	772	$1,300	$1.68	23d	1	1.44mi
223 Bergamot Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,300	$2.13	3d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-04-24
   price $108,000
2. 2026-01-25
   price $110,000
3. 2026-01-20
   price $113,000
4. 2026-01-05
   status Active
5. 2025-12-10
   historical
6. 2025-10-31
   price $115,000
7. 2025-10-07
   price $119,000
8. 2025-06-14
   listed $125,000 Active
9. 2024-11-04
   historical $1,300
10. 2024-10-14
    price $1,300
11. 2024-09-29
    listed $1,350
12. 2024-09-29
    historical $1,350
13. 2024-09-27
    price $1,350
14. 2024-09-24
    listed $1,250
15. 2024-09-23
    historical $1,250
16. 2024-09-19
    listed $1,250
17. 2024-08-30
    status Active
18. 2024-08-10
    status Pending
19. 2024-07-08
    listed $139,000 Active
20. 2024-06-30
    historical
21. 2024-05-10
    price $129,999
22. 2024-03-11
    price $139,999
23. 2024-03-05
    status Active
24. 2024-02-29
    historical
25. 2024-01-07
    price $145,000
26. 2023-10-04
    price $155,000
27. 2023-10-03
    listed $149,999 Active
28. 2022-04-08
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
29. 2022-03-19
    status Pending
30. 2022-01-20
    price $112,000
31. 2021-12-20
    listed $116,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,398
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,050
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$3,142
• Taxable income: $3,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$757
• After-tax cash flow: $3,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $108,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $113,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Rental Removed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2024-10-14 Price Changed $1,300 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Listed for Rent $1,350 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Rental Removed $1,350 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $1,350 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-24 Listed for Rent $1,250 TURBOTENANT
• 2024-09-23 Rental Removed $1,250 STELLARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed for Rent $1,250 STELLARMLS
• 2024-08-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-08 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $129,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $139,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-07 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-04 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-03 Listed $149,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-08 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-20 Price Changed $112,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-20 Listed $116,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid