24126 Jumping Jay Ln · Houston, TX 77447

$177,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1982 6,825 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home well-designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This cozy home features an open-concept living and kitchen area that maximizes space and functionality, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone looking to downsize, the layout provides comfortable bedrooms and practical everyday living. The spacious yard offers room to enjoy outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near Hwy 290 and Hwy 99, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes while still enjoying a quiet neighborhood setting. Affordable, functional, and full of potential — this Hockley property is a great opportunity to own rather than rent.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open-concept living
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• SPACIOUS YARD
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,070 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.12%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,076
• List price: $177,000
• Delta: 3.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17510 Bullis Gap Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	4mo	$195,000	$195	93
24022 Four Sixes Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	0mo	$184,000	$184	93
24134 Kennedy Ranch Ln	0.15mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	0mo	$149,000	$149	92
24123 Kennedy Ranch Ln	0.18mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	12mo	$189,500	$190	81
24127 Jumping Jay Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	998 (0%)	20mo	$180,000	$180	79
24211 Four Sixes Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,035 (+4%)	6mo	$189,000	$183	76
17206 Bullis Gap Dr	0.25mi	3/1.0	998 (0%)	16mo	$194,900	$195	75
24039 Rockin Seven Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (+11%)	6mo	$179,000	$162	68
24227 Kennedy Ranch Ln	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	901 (-10%)	8mo	$160,000	$178	60
17307 Ranch Country Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	901 (-10%)	10mo	$186,500	$207	60
17311 Wagganner Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+10%)	12mo	$209,750	$191	53
17314 Box Canyon Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,111 (+11%)	16mo	$180,000	$162	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-20,851
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-22,578
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,783/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24318 Running Iron Dr Hockley, TX	2.0	1.0	958	$1,400	$1.46	43d	1	0.19mi
23823 Cumberland Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1034	$1,954	$1.89	3d	22	0.39mi
17013 Becker Rd Hockley, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1071	$2,315	$2.16	1d	122	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $177,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,500 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,500 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,500 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,500 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,500 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,500 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,500 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,500 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    price $179,500 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home well-designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This cozy home features an open-concept living and kitchen area that maximizes space and functionality, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone looking to downsize, the layout provides comfortable bedrooms and practical everyday living. The spacious yard offers room to enjoy outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near Hwy 290 and Hwy 99, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes while still enjoying a quiet neighborhood setting. Affordable, functional, and full of potential — this Hockley property is a great opportunity to own rather than rent.

15. 2026-03-26
    price $185,000 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home well-designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This cozy home features an open-concept living and kitchen area that maximizes space and functionality, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone looking to downsize, the layout provides comfortable bedrooms and practical everyday living. The spacious yard offers room to enjoy outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near Hwy 290 and Hwy 99, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes while still enjoying a quiet neighborhood setting. Affordable, functional, and full of potential — this Hockley property is a great opportunity to own rather than rent.

16. 2026-03-03
    listed $189,000 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home well-designed living space on a desirable corner lot. This cozy home features an open-concept living and kitchen area that maximizes space and functionality, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere. Ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone looking to downsize, the layout provides comfortable bedrooms and practical everyday living. The spacious yard offers room to enjoy outdoor activities, gardening, or future improvements. Conveniently located near Hwy 290 and Hwy 99, providing easy access to shopping, dining, and commuting routes while still enjoying a quiet neighborhood setting. Affordable, functional, and full of potential — this Hockley property is a great opportunity to own rather than rent.

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $1,690
18. 2025-01-17
    historical $1,499
19. 2025-01-08
    price $1,499
20. 2024-12-19
    price $1,500
21. 2024-11-20
    price $1,650
22. 2024-11-16
    price $1,699
23. 2024-10-30
    listed $1,750
24. 2017-08-25
    soldstatus
25. 1996-06-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,783 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,478
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$3,783
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $2,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10157.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $179,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed for Rent $1,690 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $1,499 HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $1,499 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2024-11-20 Price Changed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2024-11-16 Price Changed $1,699 HARMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS
• 2017-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,783 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.