383 Via Aloe Vera · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$271,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Land · 119 Days on market

Built 2026 0.89 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Seller will accept or counter offers between $258,240 and $275,995. Spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering over 1,500 sq ft of comfortable living space on a flat, usable 0.8+ acre lot. This property provides endless potential with ample room to add an ADU, pool, workshop, RV garage, or additional outbuildings. Enjoy privacy, flexibility, and room to grow--all while having the convenience of a 2-car garage and expansive outdoor space. A rare opportunity to own nearly an acre with room to create your ideal setup.

Key facts

• Flat usable lot
• 0.89 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FLAT USABLE LOT
• EXPANSIVE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction with stucco exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Decorative gravel landscaping; North/South exposure; Paved city-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Electric cooktop
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $271k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-543 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (29.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (37.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #129 of 501 in AZ (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Little Red Schoolhouse (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #471 of 1,109 statewide, top 44%, 183 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 24% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $271k implies a 3291% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,551 (37.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $113,172
• Equity at exit: $244,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $360,519
• Equity at exit: $526,979

Cash invested: $75,950 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,422
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,069/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $192,678

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-356	-5% $-449	+0% $-543	+5% $-637	+10% $-730
Rent	-10% $-676	-5% $-610	+0% $-543	+5% $-476	+10% $-410
Rate	-1.0pp $-406	-0.5pp $-474	base $-543	+0.5pp $-613	+1.0pp $-685

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,812
• Closing costs: $8,138
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $271,250 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $271,250 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,250 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,250 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,250 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,250 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $271,250 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $271,250 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,250 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $271,250 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $271,250 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $271,250 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $271,250 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,250 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,250 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,250 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,250 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $271,250
19. 2026-03-13
    price $273,250
20. 2026-02-23
    listed $279,250 Active
21. 2024-09-04
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,194
• − Property taxes: −$4,069
• − Insurance: −$1,356
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$7,891
• Taxable loss: −$11,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,765
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Elementary District (4459)
• NCES district ID: 0407500
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,772
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6166
• State rank: #129 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3290.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $271,250 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $273,250 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-23 Listed $279,250 MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.