4949 Katrina Dr · Haines City, FL 33844

$368,600

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,077 sqft · Land · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 5,662 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Welcome to the Lakeside, one of our one-story floorplans featured in our Crosswinds in Haines City, Florida. Take your pick between two artfully designed exteriors. Inside this beautiful 5 bedroom, 3 bathroom home, you'll find 2,077 square feet of comfortable living. The living area is an open concept, where your kitchen, living, and dining areas blend seamlessly into a space perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features modern cabinets, quartz countertops, and sleek stainless-steel appliances, which are sure to both turn heads and make meal prep easy. You'll never be too far from the action with the living and dining area right there. Find luxury vi

Key facts

• One story floorplans
• Quartz countertops
• Modern cabinets

Tags

• ONE STORY FLOORPLANS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-615 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,509/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 1107% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($358k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,942 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.15%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-103,384
• Equity at exit: $54,959

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-158,214
• Equity at exit: $31,870

Cash invested: $103,208 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,509 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,933
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,529/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-615

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,288

Max offer price $279,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-360	-5% $-487	+0% $-615	+5% $-742	+10% $-870
Rent	-10% $-813	-5% $-714	+0% $-615	+5% $-516	+10% $-417
Rate	-1.0pp $-429	-0.5pp $-521	base $-615	+0.5pp $-710	+1.0pp $-808

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,150
• Closing costs: $11,058
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,500	$1.36	24d	1	0.15mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	24d	1	0.20mi
5177 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,920	$1.38	4d	1	0.22mi
5157 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,900	$1.38	4d	1	0.24mi
5161 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2500	$2,100	$0.84	24d	1	0.24mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	15d	1	0.24mi
4813 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.25mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	24d	1	0.28mi
4757 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2451	$2,050	$0.84	24d	1	0.30mi
4034 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,400	$1.03	4d	1	0.41mi
3910 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,600	$1.23	24d	1	0.43mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	24d	1	0.45mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	4d	1	0.48mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	24d	1	0.53mi
2203 Pigeon Plum Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1887	$2,190	$1.16	11d	1	0.67mi
1950 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$1,975	$1.02	24d	1	0.76mi
600 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2267	$2,800	$1.24	11d	1	0.78mi
144 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2712	$2,600	$0.96	24d	1	0.82mi
1276 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,895	$1.00	12d	1	0.83mi
621 Sand Pine Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2040	$2,350	$1.15	11d	1	0.84mi
429 Silver Palm Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,990	$1.22	20d	1	0.92mi
1361 Current Pl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1630	$2,100	$1.29	24d	1	0.96mi
299 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.04mi
1462 Sea Glass Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,200	$1.01	24d	1	1.04mi
219 Bottle Brush Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2420	$2,450	$1.01	24d	1	1.05mi
202 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,905	$0.96	13d	1	1.09mi
333 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$1,985	$1.04	13d	1	1.12mi
1105 Lexington Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2123	$1,995	$0.94	20d	1	1.12mi
167 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1981	$2,020	$1.02	20d	1	1.15mi
851 Folklore Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	3.0	2290	$2,195	$0.96	4d	1	1.18mi
117 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	2099	$2,085	$0.99	24d	1	1.19mi
120 Hidden Lake Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1909	$2,020	$1.06	15d	1	1.21mi
239 Summerlin Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	2168	$2,300	$1.06	24d	1	1.31mi
601 Ambleside Dr Haines City, FL	5.0	3.0	2827	$2,600	$0.92	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   listed $368,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,647
• − Property taxes: −$5,529
• − Insurance: −$1,843
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,723
• Taxable loss: −$14,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,371
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Listed $368,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid