39678 Road 425b Spc 2 · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 1974

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautifully remodeled single wide home has a spacious living room, remodeled kitchen with newer appliances, newer carpeting and laminate flooring in the kitchen and newer paint inside. The screened deck area overlooks a spacious meadow with spectacular mountain views.

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Enclosed porch
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• ENCLOSED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric service on; Public utilities
• Home design: Mobile home (Skyline)
• Construction: Wood siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Composition roof; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: One-level; Covered, enclosed porch/patio; Shed(s); Mountain setting; Mature landscaping; Park space rented

Interior

• Kitchen: Full range/oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bathrooms: One bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Has heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas appliances; Full range/oven
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $25k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.6% vs local median 3.4% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($25k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.67%
• DSCR: 8.68
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.59×
• Total profit: $60,110
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.28×
• Total profit: $134,984
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $111/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $1,007

Break-even live

Break-even rent $191

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,021	-5% $1,014	+0% $1,007	+5% $1,000	+10% $993
Rent	-10% $891	-5% $949	+0% $1,007	+5% $1,065	+10% $1,123
Rate	-1.0pp $1,020	-0.5pp $1,014	base $1,007	+0.5pp $1,001	+1.0pp $994

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $25,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-22
    listed $30,000 Active
19. 2019-07-16
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed Sale 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    A beautifully remodeled single wide home has a spacious living room, remodeled kitchen with newer appliances, newer carpeting and laminate flooring in the kitchen and newer paint inside. The screened deck area overlooks a spacious meadow with spectacular mountain views.

20. 2019-04-01
    listed $35,000 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    A beautifully remodeled single wide home has a spacious living room, remodeled kitchen with newer appliances, newer carpeting and laminate flooring in the kitchen and newer paint inside. The screened deck area overlooks a spacious meadow with spectacular mountain views.

21. 2017-10-16
    price $24,500 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

22. 2017-10-16
    soldstatus $24,500 Sold 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

23. 2017-10-16
    soldstatus $24,500 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

24. 2017-09-15
    status Backup 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

25. 2017-09-15
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

26. 2017-09-15
    price $25,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

27. 2017-06-27
    price $25,900

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

28. 2017-06-27
    price $25,900 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

29. 2017-05-15
    listed $29,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

30. 2017-05-15
    listed $29,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Very cute and clean 1 bedroom, 1 bath single wide manufactured home. 720+/- sq. ft. in a senior park. 2 year roof, interior and exterior painted 2 yrs ago and carpet. Plenty of yard to enjoy! All ready for you to move in! Adorable must see!

31. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus $8,700
32. 2011-10-21
    soldstatus $8,700
33. 2011-10-15
    historical
34. 2011-10-15
    price $9,749
35. 2011-10-14
    historical
36. 2010-06-22
    listed $8,700
37. 2010-06-22
    listed $9,749

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $111 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $190 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 71.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 50 unhealthy d/yr today · 55 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$111
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $12,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,979
• After-tax cash flow: $9,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+244.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $30,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-07-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CRMLS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $35,000 CRMLS
• 2017-10-16 Price Changed $24,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-10-16 Sold (MLS) $24,500 CRMLS
• 2017-10-16 Sold (MLS) $24,500 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-09-15 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2017-09-15 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2017-09-15 Price Changed $25,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-06-27 Price Changed $25,900 CRMLS
• 2017-06-27 Price Changed $25,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-05-15 Listed $29,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2017-05-15 Listed $29,000 CRMLS
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) $8,700 CRMLS
• 2011-10-21 Sold (MLS) $8,700 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-15 Price Changed $9,749 FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-15 Delisted — FRESNOMLS
• 2011-10-14 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2010-06-22 Listed $9,749 CRMLS
• 2010-06-22 Listed $8,700 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2017): $111 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.