601 Baylor St · Nocona, TX 76255

$79,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 894 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1950 0.48 ac lot $89/sqft · 29% below area Est $112k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**PRICED BELOW TAX APPRAISED VALUE** Dream big in a town full of character. Set on nearly half an acre (.489 acres), this 894 sq ft home has been taken down to the studs and is ready for a fresh start. The hard part is done—now it’s your turn to bring it back to life. With plenty of room to expand, you can design the home you’ve always wanted while enjoying the charm and energy of a small town with real personality. Add square footage, create a garden retreat, or build out a modern farmhouse feel—the possibilities are wide open. This isn’t just a renovation—it’s a chance to create something uniquely yours.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 81 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $350 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.9% in Nocona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#555 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nocona ISD (town): math 44% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #427 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Montague County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montague County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,730 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.84%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,855
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: -28.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
609 Baylor St	0.04mi	2/1.0	870 (-3%)	12mo	$35,000	$40	80
207 W Walnut St	0.17mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-10%)	2mo	$154,999	$194	64
915 Young St	0.31mi	2/1.0	838 (-6%)	9mo	$65,000	$78	64
810 Clay St	0.26mi	2/1.0	780 (-13%)	24mo	$119,900	$154	43
306 Henrietta St	0.74mi	2/1.0	840 (-6%)	24mo	$140,000	$167	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $9,429
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $37,075
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76255

• Home prices YoY: -12.5%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,783/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $350

Break-even live

Break-even rent $758

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $395	-5% $372	+0% $350	+5% $327	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $255	-5% $302	+0% $350	+5% $397	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $370	base $350	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,500 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $79,500 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,500 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    listed $79,500 Active 657-char remark

    Show marketing remark (657 chars)

    **PRICED BELOW TAX APPRAISED VALUE** Dream big in a town full of character. Set on nearly half an acre (.489 acres), this 894 sq ft home has been taken down to the studs and is ready for a fresh start. The hard part is done—now it’s your turn to bring it back to life. With plenty of room to expand, you can design the home you’ve always wanted while enjoying the charm and energy of a small town with real personality. Add square footage, create a garden retreat, or build out a modern farmhouse feel—the possibilities are wide open. This isn’t just a renovation—it’s a chance to create something uniquely yours.

19. 2022-07-21
    soldstatus
20. 2021-05-12
    soldstatus
21. 2008-02-08
    soldstatus
22. 2002-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,783 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,783
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $3,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$756
• After-tax cash flow: $3,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nocona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832790
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,890
• Composite: 33.79/100
• National rank: #5364
• State rank: #427 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nocona

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #10720

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocona, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,725

Population outlook (Montague County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,216 people
• By 2030: 17,603 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 16,451 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 15,424 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 13,365 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 10,998 · -39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montague

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.7) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.5pp · 2024: -77.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.7 2020: R+76.6 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+70.1 2008: R+58.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.13%
• Current HPI: 183.6308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $79,500 NTREIS
• 2022-07-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+20.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,783 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.