16225 N 29th ST -- #51 · Phoenix, AZ 85032

$69,650

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured · 152 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $54/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 11% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully remodeled home is a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home. Home has been remodeled from floor to ceiling with new laminate floors, updated kitchen and bathrooms new paint inside and out. The newer AC unit is energy efficient. Enjoy the tranquil porch and covered parking including beautiful community pool. Conveniently located near Arizona State Route 51 and Greenway. Listing Agent has a vested interest in this property.

Key facts

• Tranquil porch
• Covered parking
• Community pool

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TRANQUIL PORCH
• COVERED PARKING
• COMMUNITY POOL
• COMMUNITY SPA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $482 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,292 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.18%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,888
• List price: $69,650
• Delta: -60.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16225 N 29th St #59	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-4%)	4mo	$55,000	$44	90
16225 N 29th St #43	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+7%)	3mo	$80,000	$57	77
16215 N 33rd St	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,296 (0%)	6mo	$265,000	$204	74
2729 E Juniper Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	7mo	$175,000	$133	67
16416 N 33rd St	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,188 (-8%)	8mo	$275,000	$231	58
16210 N 32nd Way	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$156	56
16230 N 33rd St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+11%)	1mo	$252,500	$175	55
16440 N 35th St	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+10%)	1mo	$193,000	$135	50
3449 E Kings Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (+9%)	5mo	$227,000	$160	43
16225 N Cave Creek Rd #21	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-11%)	8mo	$93,000	$81	40
16225 N 35th Pl	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,450 (+12%)	7mo	$295,000	$203	39
3515 E Kings Ave	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,450 (+12%)	7mo	$275,000	$190	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $29,040
• Equity at exit: $10,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $65,967
• Equity at exit: $6,022

Cash invested: $19,502 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85032

• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$365
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,045/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $69,650

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $726	+0% $702	+5% $678	+10% $654
Rent	-10% $583	-5% $643	+0% $702	+5% $761	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $737	-0.5pp $719	base $702	+0.5pp $684	+1.0pp $665

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,412
• Closing costs: $2,090
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16225 N 30th St #9 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	968	$1,350	$1.39	24d	1	0.12mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.14mi
2827 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	11d	1	0.14mi
16231 N 30th Ter Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,835	$1.23	19d	1	0.15mi
3027 E Grandview Rd Unit 3027-B Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	912	$1,375	$1.51	8d	1	0.15mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	15d	1	0.16mi
2826 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	929	$1,295	$1.39	17d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	4d	1	0.16mi
16402 N 31st St #119 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	933	$1,375	$1.47	18d	1	0.16mi
2807 E Paradise Ln Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1124	$1,475	$1.31	24d	1	0.16mi
16021 N 30th St #119 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	24d	1	0.17mi
3003 E Kings Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,800	$1.94	5d	1	0.18mi
2844 E Marconi Ave Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1123	$1,550	$1.38	22d	1	0.18mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,074	$0.93	15d	1	0.19mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1157	$1,099	$0.95	24d	1	0.19mi
2807 E Le Marche Ave Apt 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	884	$995	$1.13	24d	1	0.19mi
2807 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$865	$0.96	24d	1	0.21mi
2802 E Monte Cristo Ave Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	929	$950	$1.02	24d	1	0.21mi
2837 E Marconi Ave Unit 203 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$975	$1.08	24d	1	0.21mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Unit 103 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.22mi
2846 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$949	$0.86	24d	1	0.22mi
16015 N 30th St #123 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1426	$1,950	$1.37	22d	1	0.23mi
2819 E Marconi Ave Unit 201 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.24mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Unit 101 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.27mi
2821 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1106	$900	$0.81	24d	1	0.27mi
15801 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,650	$1.49	22d	1	0.27mi
15636 N 29th St #1 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1698	$2,399	$1.41	18d	1	0.31mi
2834 E Tracy Ln #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1254	$1,550	$1.24	24d	1	0.32mi
15626 N 29th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1271	$2,150	$1.69	24d	1	0.32mi
2854 E Phelps Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,811	$1.22	22d	1	0.33mi
15651 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.39mi
15601 N 30th St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	15d	1	0.40mi
2713 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,799	$1.12	14d	1	0.43mi
2713 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	1612	$1,799	$1.12	8d	1	0.43mi
2712 E Juniper Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,435	$1.00	5d	1	0.46mi
15601 N 27th St #18 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	888	$1,495	$1.68	14d	1	0.46mi
15601 N 27th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	894	$1,422	$1.59	5d	2	0.48mi
2726 E Beck Ln Unit 03 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	916	$1,295	$1.41	24d	1	0.49mi
2718 E Beck Ln Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	950	$1,295	$1.36	24d	1	0.49mi
16033 N 25th St Unit 102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,350	$1.29	8d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,650 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $69,650 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,650 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,650 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,650 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,650 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,650 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,650 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,650 Active 140 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,650 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,650 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,650 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-03-27
    price $79,650 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled home is a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home. Home has been remodeled from floor to ceiling with new laminate floors, updated kitchen and bathrooms new paint inside and out. The newer AC unit is energy efficient. Enjoy the tranquil porch and covered parking including beautiful community pool. Conveniently located near Arizona State Route 51 and Greenway. Listing Agent has a vested interest in this property.

14. 2026-01-13
    listed $89,650 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled home is a 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home. Home has been remodeled from floor to ceiling with new laminate floors, updated kitchen and bathrooms new paint inside and out. The newer AC unit is energy efficient. Enjoy the tranquil porch and covered parking including beautiful community pool. Conveniently located near Arizona State Route 51 and Greenway. Listing Agent has a vested interest in this property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,045
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,026
• Taxable income: $7,774
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,866
• After-tax cash flow: $6,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully remodeled 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is move-in ready with new laminate flooring, updated kitchens and bathrooms, and a fresh paint job. It offers a tranquil porch and covered parking, making it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace window screens — Screens improve energy efficiency and safety
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window screens — Screens improve energy efficiency and safety ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 70,839
• Household income: $78,643
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2887.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 17% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.65%
• Current HPI: 339.4181
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.46%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $79,650 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $89,650 ARMLS