199 Pine St · Tilden, NE 68781

$69,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1995

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment Opportunity with Solid Potential This modular home offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a property with strong potential. The home features good structural integrity and a well-designed floor plan that provides an excellent foundation for updates and improvements. Inside, you’ll find spacious rooms, ample closet space, and a layout that lends itself well to modernization. If you’re seeking an affordable home with promise and value, this is one you won’t want to miss.

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 220 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#117 in NE, #4,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elkhorn Valley Schools (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #66 of 111 in NE (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elkhorn Valley Elementary Sch (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #136 of 502 statewide, top 31%, 258 students, 26% FRL); Elkhorn Valley High School (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #146 of 261 statewide, top 67%, 188 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Antelope County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Antelope County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.31%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,058
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
202 Elk St	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (-3%)	3mo	$165,000	$95	86
303 Oak St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+4%)	8mo	$220,000	$119	68
301 Elk St	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,648 (-8%)	13mo	$260,000	$158	68
407 2nd St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-8%)	4mo	$223,000	$135	63
408 3rd St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,622 (-9%)	3mo	$199,900	$123	54
411 Center St	0.30mi	3/2.0	2,024 (+14%)	14mo	$225,000	$111	52
201 10th St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (+3%)	11mo	$200,000	$109	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $43,769
• Equity at exit: $35,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $107,145
• Equity at exit: $58,191

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68781

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $802/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $585

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $514	+0% $494	+5% $475	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $447	+0% $494	+5% $542	+10% $590
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $512	base $494	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,900 Active 207 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 206 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,900 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 200 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 199 DOM
17. 2026-03-27
    price $74,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity with Solid Potential This modular home offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a property with strong potential. The home features good structural integrity and a well-designed floor plan that provides an excellent foundation for updates and improvements. Inside, you’ll find spacious rooms, ample closet space, and a layout that lends itself well to modernization. If you’re seeking an affordable home with promise and value, this is one you won’t want to miss.

18. 2026-02-04
    price $79,900 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity with Solid Potential This modular home offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a property with strong potential. The home features good structural integrity and a well-designed floor plan that provides an excellent foundation for updates and improvements. Inside, you’ll find spacious rooms, ample closet space, and a layout that lends itself well to modernization. If you’re seeking an affordable home with promise and value, this is one you won’t want to miss.

19. 2025-11-14
    soldstatus $51,556
20. 2025-11-13
    listed $89,900 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Great Investment Opportunity with Solid Potential This modular home offers a fantastic opportunity for those looking to invest in a property with strong potential. The home features good structural integrity and a well-designed floor plan that provides an excellent foundation for updates and improvements. Inside, you’ll find spacious rooms, ample closet space, and a layout that lends itself well to modernization. If you’re seeking an affordable home with promise and value, this is one you won’t want to miss.

21. 2025-09-09
    soldstatus $46,400
22. 2018-10-02
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2017-12-12
    soldstatus $43,000
24. 2013-02-11
    soldstatus $49,000
25. 2010-10-07
    soldstatus $44,500
26. 2008-05-16
    soldstatus $38,000
27. 2004-10-18
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $802 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$802
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,109
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkhorn Valley Schools
• NCES district ID: 3100025
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,418
• Composite: 42.64/100
• National rank: #3181
• State rank: #66 of 111 in NE

Livability — Tilden

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #4564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tilden, NE
• Population (ZIP): 1,388

Population outlook (Antelope County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,898 people
• By 2030: 5,669 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 5,252 · -11.0%
• By 2050: 4,905 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 4,385 · -25.7%
• By 2100: 3,763 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Antelope

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.5) · D 11.5% · R 88.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.0pp · 2024: -76.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.5 2020: R+73.7 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+62.8 2008: R+51.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.02%
• Current HPI: 234.3238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+74.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $74,900 NNEMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $79,900 NNEMLS
• 2025-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $51,556 Public Records
• 2025-11-13 Listed $89,900 NNEMLS
• 2025-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $46,400 Public Records
• 2018-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $44,500 Public Records
• 2008-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2004-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $802 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.