996 Lake View Cir W · Brookshire, TX 77423

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 2018 5,732 sqft lot Est $228k · 23% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUD Case #512-318126 Great 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo. HUD homes are sold as-is!! Visit hudhomestore for bid deadline.

Key facts

• 5,732 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.9% in Brookshire — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#960 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.13%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,488
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
996 Lake View Cir W	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,329 (-2%)	0mo	$175,000	$132	97
836 Crystal Lakes Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	14mo	$229,000	$169	83
5028 Sycamore Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	11mo	$229,000	$169	81
772 Crystal Lakes Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,352 (0%)	23mo	$229,000	$169	75
1631 Quail Run	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+0%)	2mo	$200,000	$148	74
34557 Park Grn	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+1%)	15mo	$225,000	$165	66
1410 Hovas Ln	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (0%)	6mo	$650,000	$481	66
4310 7th St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	0mo	$215,000	$160	65
34519 Park Vw	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,245 (-8%)	7mo	$219,000	$176	64
34515 Parkview Vw	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,261 (-7%)	15mo	$209,990	$167	59
34706 Lake Side Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+12%)	8mo	$240,000	$159	53
1622 Dove Run	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,480 (+10%)	3mo	$249,900	$169	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,636
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,447
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,210/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,835

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $382	+0% $332	+5% $283	+10% $233
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $243	+0% $332	+5% $421	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $420	-0.5pp $377	base $332	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Walnut Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,941	$1.10	45d	1	0.11mi
523 Solomon Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.5	1516	$3,480	$2.30	45d	1	0.46mi
4441 South St Brookshire, TX	3.0	3.0	1846	$1,500	$0.81	45d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2025-09-30
   historical
4. 2025-02-10
   listed $239,000 Active
5. 2025-01-31
   historical
6. 2024-07-13
   status Active
7. 2024-06-23
   status Pending
8. 2024-06-19
   status Option Pending
9. 2024-05-08
   listed $225,000 Active
10. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus Sold
11. 2018-08-29
    status Pending, Continue to Show
12. 2018-08-29
    listed $172,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,210 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,066
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,210
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$350
• After-tax cash flow: $3,635/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brookshire

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #960
• US rank: #17059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brookshire, TX
• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-08-29 Listed $172,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+54.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,210 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.