20232 Torrey Pines Ln · Cleveland, TX 77327

$244,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2020 Est $265k · 8% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to Privacy, Convenience & Tranquility! Stunning, 'almost new' home with many luxurious upgrades & features! Beautifully landscaped property backs up to a greenbelt/reserve, so no back neighbors! Relax on the covered, screened-in, extended back patio in your own peaceful backyard oasis-including a gate with private access to greenbelt, recently added shed, whole house generator & raised garden beds. Conveniently located in an exclusive community featuring a Private Lake, Golf Course, Clubhouse, Pool, Splash Pad, Gym, Parks, Restaurant & more. Prime location for an easy commute to IAH & other points of interest. Well-maintained, immaculate move-in ready home featuring upgraded granite counters & custom cabinetry in kitchen & bathrooms. Spacious, flowing open floor plan boasts high ceilings, a cozy fireplace, barnwood accents, ceiling fans, upgraded flooring & more *See Upgrades & Features list! *Low utility costs & taxes/2025 taxes=$2,928. No flooding! Make this your home today!

Key facts

• Landscaped property
• Private lake
• Raised garden beds

Tags

• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• COVERED SCREENED PATIO
• RECENTLY ADDED SHED
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• RAISED GARDEN BEDS
• PRIVATE LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,208
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -7.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20078 Swinley Forest Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+1%)	1mo	$255,900	$141	86
10401 Woodhill Spa Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,795 (-0%)	2mo	$284,990	$159	79
10110 Oakland Hills Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+3%)	5mo	$289,990	$156	74
10291 Pelican Hill Ln	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+1%)	6mo	$262,900	$144	73
10621 Ellerston Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+1%)	4mo	$271,400	$149	71
10258 Prairie Dunes Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (+1%)	5mo	$284,880	$156	71
10120 Oakland Hills Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (+10%)	1mo	$260,000	$132	62
10661 Ellerston Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (-5%)	4mo	$254,900	$148	61
10250 Cabo Del Sol Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (-7%)	3mo	$259,990	$156	60
10100 Oakland Hills Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,014 (+12%)	5mo	$301,990	$150	59
10240 Cabo Del Sol Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,622 (-10%)	0mo	$199,900	$123	58
30250 Kingston Heath Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,538 (-15%)	2mo	$239,900	$156	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-46,738
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-42,529
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$448 /mo · $5,377/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,469

Max offer price $218,374

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-81	+0% $-150	+5% $-219	+10% $-289
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-240	+0% $-150	+5% $-60	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $-27	-0.5pp $-88	base $-150	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11040 Pelican Hill Ln Cleveland, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,200	$0.85	4d	1	0.42mi
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	0d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $244,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,750 Active 144 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,750 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,750 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,750 Active 139 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,750 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,750 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,750 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,750 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-01-16
    listed $259,750 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1038 chars)

    Escape to Privacy, Convenience & Tranquility! Stunning, 'almost new' home with many luxurious upgrades & features! Beautifully landscaped property backs up to a greenbelt/reserve, so no back neighbors! Relax on the covered, screened-in, extended back patio in your own peaceful backyard oasis-including a gate with private access to greenbelt, recently added shed, whole house generator & raised garden beds. Conveniently located in an exclusive community featuring a Private Lake, Golf Course, Clubhouse, Pool, Splash Pad, Gym, Parks, Restaurant & more. Prime location for an easy commute to IAH & other points of interest. Well-maintained, immaculate move-in ready home featuring upgraded granite counters & custom cabinetry in kitchen & bathrooms. Spacious, flowing open floor plan boasts high ceilings, a cozy fireplace, barnwood accents, ceiling fans, upgraded flooring & more *See Upgrades & Features list! *Low utility costs & taxes/2025 taxes=$2,928. No flooding! Make this your home today!

16. 2024-11-23
    historical
17. 2024-10-22
    listed $249,900 Active
18. 2024-10-01
    historical
19. 2024-07-15
    listed $253,990 Active
20. 2024-07-15
    historical
21. 2024-05-31
    price $269,000
22. 2024-05-24
    listed $274,900 Active
23. 2024-05-24
    historical
24. 2024-03-01
    listed $274,900 Active
25. 2024-03-01
    historical
26. 2021-07-09
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2021-06-24
    status Pending, Continue to Show
28. 2021-05-29
    price $268,990
29. 2021-05-01
    historical
30. 2021-05-01
    listed $290,990 Active
31. 2021-04-15
    price $284,990
32. 2021-04-03
    price $279,990
33. 2021-02-20
    price $251,990
34. 2021-01-01
    price $249,990
35. 2020-09-30
    listed $246,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,377 · $448/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$5,377
• − Insurance: −$2,022
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,188
• − Management: −$2,188
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$5,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $-394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $259,750 HARMLS
• 2024-11-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $253,990 HARMLS
• 2024-05-31 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-29 Price Changed $268,990 HARMLS
• 2021-05-01 Listed $290,990 HARMLS
• 2021-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-04-15 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2021-04-03 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2021-02-20 Price Changed $251,990 HARMLS
• 2021-01-01 Price Changed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2020-09-30 Listed $246,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+63.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,377 · -16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.