1954 Admiral Ln · Aransas Pass, TX 78336

$287,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2023 6,118 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $275k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1954 Admiral Lane in Aransas Pass, TX. This ready-to-move in three-bedroom 2-bathroom 2023 home is waiting for you! Steps away from the front door enjoy a spacious open concept living room, dining room and kitchen with island seating. Off the living room are two generously sized bedrooms with a spacious hall bath. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with storage shelves and plenty of room to hang your clothes. Also included are dual vanities with a tiled shower. Do you enjoy entertaining? The backyard provides lots of space for entertainment and pets. With plenty of boat ramps in the Aransas Pass area you could be at your favorite fishing hole in no time. Do you enjoy the beach life? A 10 – 15 minute drive and a short ferry ride will have you on the beaches of Port Aransas enjoying the sun and the waves.

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• Boat ramps

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITIES
• TILED SHOWER
• BOAT RAMPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $288k).
• Recommended offer: $253k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.6% in Aransas Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#253 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Aransas Pass ISD (town): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #597 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.65%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,938
• List price: $287,500
• Delta: 4.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
704 Starboard	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,655 (-5%)	18mo	$355,000	$215	65
1003 W Rhodes Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (-7%)	3mo	$484,500	$301	65
1962 Admiral Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-12%)	18mo	$289,900	$190	65
2058 Admiral	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (-9%)	17mo	$319,000	$203	59
1384 Morgan	0.38mi	3/3.0	1,586 (-9%)	8mo	$379,900	$240	57
1838 S Saunders St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-15%)	22mo	$325,000	$219	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $20,486
• Equity at exit: $42,867

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $104,730
• Equity at exit: $24,858

Cash invested: $80,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78336

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax from tax record: −$565 /mo · $6,784/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $1,050

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $287,500

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,213	-5% $1,132	+0% $1,050	+5% $969	+10% $887
Rent	-10% $726	-5% $888	+0% $1,050	+5% $1,212	+10% $1,374
Rate	-1.0pp $1,195	-0.5pp $1,123	base $1,050	+0.5pp $976	+1.0pp $900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,875
• Closing costs: $8,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 S 8th St Unit 1268400P Aransas Pass, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$4,105	$3.21	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $287,500 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,500 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,500 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,500 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,500 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $287,500 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $287,500 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,500 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $287,500 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,500 Active 129 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,500 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $287,500 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,500 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,500 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,500 Active 122 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,500 Active 121 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $287,500 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Welcome to 1954 Admiral Lane in Aransas Pass, TX. This ready-to-move in three-bedroom 2-bathroom 2023 home is waiting for you! Steps away from the front door enjoy a spacious open concept living room, dining room and kitchen with island seating. Off the living room are two generously sized bedrooms with a spacious hall bath. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with storage shelves and plenty of room to hang your clothes. Also included are dual vanities with a tiled shower. Do you enjoy entertaining? The backyard provides lots of space for entertainment and pets. With plenty of boat ramps in the Aransas Pass area you could be at your favorite fishing hole in no time. Do you enjoy the beach life? A 10 – 15 minute drive and a short ferry ride will have you on the beaches of Port Aransas enjoying the sun and the waves.

18. 2026-03-16
    price $298,500 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Welcome to 1954 Admiral Lane in Aransas Pass, TX. This ready-to-move in three-bedroom 2-bathroom 2023 home is waiting for you! Steps away from the front door enjoy a spacious open concept living room, dining room and kitchen with island seating. Off the living room are two generously sized bedrooms with a spacious hall bath. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with storage shelves and plenty of room to hang your clothes. Also included are dual vanities with a tiled shower. Do you enjoy entertaining? The backyard provides lots of space for entertainment and pets. With plenty of boat ramps in the Aransas Pass area you could be at your favorite fishing hole in no time. Do you enjoy the beach life? A 10 – 15 minute drive and a short ferry ride will have you on the beaches of Port Aransas enjoying the sun and the waves.

19. 2026-02-08
    price $309,500 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Welcome to 1954 Admiral Lane in Aransas Pass, TX. This ready-to-move in three-bedroom 2-bathroom 2023 home is waiting for you! Steps away from the front door enjoy a spacious open concept living room, dining room and kitchen with island seating. Off the living room are two generously sized bedrooms with a spacious hall bath. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with storage shelves and plenty of room to hang your clothes. Also included are dual vanities with a tiled shower. Do you enjoy entertaining? The backyard provides lots of space for entertainment and pets. With plenty of boat ramps in the Aransas Pass area you could be at your favorite fishing hole in no time. Do you enjoy the beach life? A 10 – 15 minute drive and a short ferry ride will have you on the beaches of Port Aransas enjoying the sun and the waves.

20. 2026-01-29
    listed $320,000 Active 840-char remark

    Show marketing remark (840 chars)

    Welcome to 1954 Admiral Lane in Aransas Pass, TX. This ready-to-move in three-bedroom 2-bathroom 2023 home is waiting for you! Steps away from the front door enjoy a spacious open concept living room, dining room and kitchen with island seating. Off the living room are two generously sized bedrooms with a spacious hall bath. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet with storage shelves and plenty of room to hang your clothes. Also included are dual vanities with a tiled shower. Do you enjoy entertaining? The backyard provides lots of space for entertainment and pets. With plenty of boat ramps in the Aransas Pass area you could be at your favorite fishing hole in no time. Do you enjoy the beach life? A 10 – 15 minute drive and a short ferry ride will have you on the beaches of Port Aransas enjoying the sun and the waves.

21. 2024-02-08
    soldstatus Closed 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

22. 2024-02-08
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

23. 2023-12-15
    status Pending 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

24. 2023-12-15
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

25. 2023-10-11
    price $285,000

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

26. 2023-10-11
    price $285,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

27. 2023-08-28
    listed $289,900 Active
28. 2023-08-23
    listed $289,900 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    New Construction Home is ready for new owners! This three-bedroom, two-bathroom home has a lot to offer! Open concept floor plan is great for entertaining. Split bedrooms with wide open living, dining and kitchen which opens up to rear covered patio in this large, pool-size backyard. Plenty of storage space, tile throughout, utility room + so much more! Secondary rooms are spacious! Master bedroom is large & includes a large walk-in closet. Located in an excellent location, no HOA close to schools, shopping, dining and entertainment! You won't want to miss out!!

29. 2022-11-28
    soldstatus
30. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,784 · $565/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,784 · $565/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,104
• − Property taxes: −$6,784
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$8,364
• Taxable income: $8,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,085
• After-tax cash flow: $10,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aransas Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808580
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,869
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7191
• State rank: #597 of 826 in TX

Livability — Aransas Pass

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #5980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aransas Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,146

Population outlook (San Patricio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,538 people
• By 2030: 79,575 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 87,670 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 96,107 · +27.2%
• By 2075: 117,984 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 130,010 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 21% Asian 2% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Patricio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.4% · R 67.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+24.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+16.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.56%
• Current HPI: 187.8443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $287,500 CBMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $298,500 CBMLS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $309,500 CBMLS
• 2026-01-29 Listed $320,000 CBMLS
• 2024-02-08 Sold (MLS) — RAAR
• 2024-02-08 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2023-12-15 Pending — CBMLS
• 2023-12-15 Contingent — RAAR
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $285,000 RAAR
• 2023-10-11 Price Changed $285,000 CBMLS
• 2023-08-28 Listed $289,900 RAAR
• 2023-08-23 Listed $289,900 CBMLS
• 2022-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+55.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,784 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.