155 Saw Mill Rd · Emerald Lakes, PA 18334

$314,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2007 0.57 ac lot Est $432k · 27% under $107/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AKA 7198 Saw Mill Road. Lovely colonial of gracious architectural layout features corner lot, 2 master suites, crown moldings, fireplace in LR and gorgeous open staircase.

Key facts

• Master suites
• Open staircase
• Crown moldings

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MASTER SUITES
• CROWN MOLDINGS
• FIREPLACE
• OPEN STAIRCASE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Emerald Lakes subdivision; directions available
• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,280 (about $106.67/month); Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, game room, indoor pool, fitness center, trails, tennis courts, and pool; Association fee includes snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking with 6 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; 2 stories; Residential property
• Construction: Above-grade finished area: 2,616
• Exterior features: Full, unfinished basement; Lot in a residential subdivision (Emerald Lakes); Lot size approximately 0.57 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Fireplace (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Emerald Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#974 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $248k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $257,656 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $432,464
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1042 Clover Rd	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,664 (+10%)	9mo	$385,000	$145	66
318 Mountain Top Lake Rd	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,448 (+1%)	2mo	$640,000	$261	60
348 Mountain Top Lake Rd	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,518 (+4%)	9mo	$550,000	$218	59
191 Beaver Dam Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,322 (-4%)	1mo	$370,000	$159	59
157 Emerald Lake Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,600 (+8%)	18mo	$385,000	$148	58
269 Sage Rd	0.58mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,408 (-0%)	7mo	$440,000	$183	58
1299 Glade Dr S	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,670 (+10%)	3mo	$320,000	$120	56
142 Bull Run	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,700 (+12%)	6mo	$475,000	$176	52
2618 Long Pond Rd	0.73mi	3/3.0	2,270 (-6%)	3mo	$412,000	$181	51
1213 Coyote Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	2,100 (-13%)	10mo	$745,000	$355	51
277 Sage Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,300 (-5%)	15mo	$360,000	$157	48
104 Tumbleweed Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,240 (-7%)	18mo	$400,000	$179	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-36,016
• Equity at exit: $76,802

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-21,526
• Equity at exit: $81,321

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18334

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,224/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $278,494

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-117	+0% $-206	+5% $-295	+10% $-384
Rent	-10% $-410	-5% $-308	+0% $-206	+5% $-104	+10% $-3
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-126	base $-206	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-371

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2113 Wild Laurel Dr Long Pond, PA	3.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.01mi
2267 Doe Dr Long Pond, PA	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,700	$1.35	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $314,900 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $314,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 171-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $314,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $314,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $314,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $314,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-11
    listed $314,900 Active
12. 2006-02-13
    soldstatus $248,160
13. 2005-08-16
    soldstatus $50,000
14. 2003-08-04
    soldstatus $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,224 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,600 · $383/mo
• Expected delta: +$376/yr (+$31/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$4,224
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$7,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Emerald Lakes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #974
• US rank: #10662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emerald Lakes, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,907

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 178.5307
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+186.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $314,900 PMAR
• 2006-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $248,160 Public Records
• 2005-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,224 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.