146 Stratford Way · Santa Rosa, CA 95401

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 1999 25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

Key facts

• Quartz sink
• Enclosed entry way
• Cedar front stairs

Tags

• CEDAR FRONT STAIRS
• ENCLOSED ENTRY WAY
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW FORMICA COUNTER TOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in The Country park
• Financial info: Monthly land lease payment: $963
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) located in a park; Land lease community; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Skyline (make); Summerhill (manufacturer); Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Underground utilities; Internet available

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Island in kitchen; Inside laundry room; Carbon monoxide detector; Double-strapped water heater; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $812 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $320k).
• Recommended offer: $315k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.88%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Shoreham Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-2%)	9mo	$285,000	$187	86
88 Norfolk Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,560 (0%)	10mo	$285,000	$183	86
127 Salisbury Cir	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-2%)	4mo	$75,000	$49	85
32 Yorkshire Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$179	76
83 Somerset Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	8mo	$152,500	$106	71
81 Somerset Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	10mo	$110,000	$76	70
145 Stratford Way	0.01mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	4mo	$129,000	$96	68
98 Sequoia Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$215,000	$160	56
186 Sequoia Cir	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-12%)	2mo	$150,000	$110	56
176 Sequoia Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	9mo	$160,000	$111	55
139 Sequoia Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	10mo	$180,000	$125	54
16 Sequoia Cir	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	10mo	$150,000	$112	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,343
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $18,050
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95401

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $812

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,418

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $994	-5% $903	+0% $812	+5% $722	+10% $631
Rent	-10% $540	-5% $676	+0% $812	+5% $949	+10% $1,085
Rate	-1.0pp $974	-0.5pp $894	base $812	+0.5pp $730	+1.0pp $645

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2135 Pebblewood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,400	$2.54	14d	1	0.74mi
1629 Chapman Way Santa Rosa, CA	4.0	3.0	2117	$4,950	$2.34	14d	1	0.81mi
1118 Dale Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,495	$1.96	22d	1	1.19mi
1316 New York Dr Unit NA Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	2200	$4,000	$1.82	22d	1	1.35mi
2983 Bay Village Ave Santa Rosa, CA	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,100	$2.21	22d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $325,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Contingent (No Show) 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Contingent (No Show) 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Contingent (No Show) 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Contingent (No Show) 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $325,000 Contingent (No Show) 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    listed $325,000 Active
18. 2023-02-28
    soldstatus $260,000 Closed 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

19. 2023-02-27
    status Pending 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

20. 2023-02-17
    historical Contingent (Show) 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

21. 2023-01-24
    price $265,000 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

22. 2022-11-08
    listed $275,000 Active 1042-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1042 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 3 bedroom 2 bath home located in The Country, a 55+ active adult community. This home has so much to offer and is a must see to truly appreciate its extra touches. A formal entry welcomes you to the spacious living room featuring cathedral ceilings and a ceiling fan, a formal dining room, and a light and bright kitchen complete with central island, skylights and a sunny breakfast area. Don't miss the large primary suite, complete with a generous bonus area which offers many possibilities such as an office, craft area, reading room, etc. Don't miss the large covered deck off the side entrance and the detached shed, big enough to hold all your tools and toys. Great location within the park with the community center, pool and office across the street. Centrally located close to downtown Santa Rosa, major hospitals, fine dining and shopping. About a 40 minute drive to the Pacific Ocean and approximately one hour North of the Golden Gate Bridge. Don't miss this fantastic opportunity to live in Wine Country

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,432 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,247/yr (+$104/mo · 105.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,309
• − Management: −$3,309
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $4,720
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $8,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,861
• Household income: $93,615
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Asian 6% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -855.56%
• Current HPI: 253.1061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.37%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $325,000 BAREIS
• 2023-02-28 Sold (MLS) $260,000 BAREIS
• 2023-02-27 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-02-17 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-01-24 Price Changed $265,000 BAREIS
• 2022-11-08 Listed $275,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,185 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.