3411 S Camino Seco -- #466 · Tucson, AZ 85730

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 91 Days on market

Built 1980 Fair condition $41/sqft · 42% below area Est $69k · 42% under $699/mo HOA · 52% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home has a ramp attached to the deck. The kitchen has newer appliances and a lovely, 10X12 sunroom overlooking a larger yard. The dark wood laminate flooring in the home gives it the arts and crafts feeling. Carpeted bedrooms and two baths with tubs. Two sheds for lots of extra storage, one 8X10 and one 8X12.

Key facts

• Newer appliances
• 4 parking spots
• Community pool

Tags

• NEWER APPLIANCES
• SUNROOM OVERLOOKING YARD
• DARK WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• TWO SHEDS FOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -42.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3411 S Camino Seco #12	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+12%)	3mo	$69,000	$63	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-3,896
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-9,068
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85730

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$699
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3673 S Camino Seco Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	800	$945	$1.18	23d	1	0.33mi
8838 E Arbor St Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	799	$1,295	$1.62	19d	1	0.54mi
9170 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	668	$1,094	$1.64	1d	2	0.68mi
8981 E Golf Links Rd Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	971	$1,890	$1.95	43d	1	0.73mi
8250 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,600	$1.85	1d	22	1.04mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	880	$1,308	$1.49	2d	1	1.11mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,094	$1.79	43d	1	1.11mi
8030 E Lakeside Pkwy Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	610	$1,240	$2.03	2d	1	1.11mi
7983 E Escalante Rd Unit 3 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	14d	1	1.22mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	21d	1	1.22mi
7950 E Stella Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	3d	1	1.22mi
2425 S Rose Peak Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	821	$1,200	$1.46	17d	1	1.25mi
9746 E Sascha St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,800	$1.76	14d	1	1.25mi
9961 E Skyward Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,550	$1.53	2d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $699 · $8,388/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $39,900 Active 328-char remark

    Show marketing remark (328 chars)

    This charming home has a ramp attached to the deck. The kitchen has newer appliances and a lovely, 10X12 sunroom overlooking a larger yard. The dark wood laminate flooring in the home gives it the arts and crafts feeling. Carpeted bedrooms and two baths with tubs. Two sheds for lots of extra storage, one 8X10 and one 8X12.

16. 2026-03-18
    price $39,900 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This charming home has a ramp attached to the deck. The kitchen has newer appliances and a lovely, 10X12 sunroom overlooking a larger yard. The dark wood laminate flooring in the home gives it the arts and crafts feeling. Carpeted bedrooms and two baths with tubs. Two sheds for lots of extra storage, one 8X10 and one 8X12. Ample parking.

17. 2026-01-22
    price $42,900 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This charming home has a ramp attached to the deck. The kitchen has newer appliances and a lovely, 10X12 sunroom overlooking a larger yard. The dark wood laminate flooring in the home gives it the arts and crafts feeling. Carpeted bedrooms and two baths with tubs. Two sheds for lots of extra storage, one 8X10 and one 8X12. Ample parking.

18. 2025-11-21
    historical
19. 2025-11-20
    listed $47,900
20. 2025-11-12
    listed $47,900 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    This charming home has a ramp attached to the deck. The kitchen has newer appliances and a lovely, 10X12 sunroom overlooking a larger yard. The dark wood laminate flooring in the home gives it the arts and crafts feeling. Carpeted bedrooms and two baths with tubs. Two sheds for lots of extra storage, one 8X10 and one 8X12. Ample parking.

21. 2021-06-28
    historical
22. 2021-04-27
    listed $10,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,301
• − Management: −$1,301
• − HOA: −$8,388
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $1,075
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$258
• After-tax cash flow: $889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on exterior siding and interior walls. Painting the exterior and replacing carpeted bedrooms would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — visible wear and tear
• Major interior walls — carpeted bedrooms
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal
• Rental replace carpeted bedrooms — improves living space

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · carpeted bedrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$30,500–103,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental replace carpeted bedrooms — improves living space ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,399
• Household income: $62,090
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.41%
• Current HPI: 304.999
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.16%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+299.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $42,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $47,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $47,900 ARMLS
• 2021-06-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-04-27 Listed $10,000 ARMLS