8951 N Amboy Dr · Citrus Springs, FL 34434

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · Land · 210 Days on market

Built 2025 10,009 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Discover Your Dream Home in the Citrus Springs Community! The Prescott Plan features an airy open layout with a seamless transition between the Living Room, a well-equipped Kitchen, and a separate Dining Area, ideal for entertaining. The kitchen stands out with its beautiful cabinetry, Quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, including a range with a microwave hood and dishwasher. The serene primary suite includes a private bath with dual vanity sinks and a generous walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a convenient two-car garage, and energy-efficient Low-E insulated dual-pane vinyl windows. A one-year limited home warranty.

Key facts

• Airy open layout
• Beautiful cabinetry
• Granite countertops

Tags

• AIRY OPEN LAYOUT
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• BEAUTIFUL CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.23 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Paved public-maintained road; Zoned R1; Living area reported as 1,477 (builder source); Permit number BLD202508499; Builder license CGC1517458

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Garage dimensions approximately 19 x 20
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One-story; New construction (projected completion Feb 26, 2026); Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by CENTURY COMPLETE (model: PRESCOTT-B6)
• Exterior features: Patio; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and cooling; Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Double-pane, insulated thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside the home

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1247 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,723 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.17%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-62,082
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-79,674
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34434

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 1247
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $214,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-134	-5% $-224	+0% $-314	+5% $-404	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-388	+0% $-314	+5% $-240	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-248	base $-314	+0.5pp $-381	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9127 N Justa Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	0.32mi
8596 N Spartan Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,000	$1.09	23d	1	0.37mi
9205 N Fawn Way Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,750	$1.23	23d	1	0.41mi
2907 W Camilo Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	23d	1	0.43mi
3584 W Burgandy Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,699	$1.20	23d	1	0.51mi
8715 N Paradisea Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1403	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.56mi
9305 N Citrus Springs Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	23d	1	0.60mi
9081 N Golfview Dr Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	1.5	1374	$1,400	$1.02	23d	1	0.60mi
3036 W Akron Pl Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,000	$1.09	23d	1	0.65mi
9730 N Elkcam Blvd Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1672	$1,785	$1.07	23d	1	0.85mi
2330 W Juan Vega Ln Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,675	$1.39	23d	1	0.89mi
8006 N Voyager Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1636	$1,899	$1.16	23d	1	0.98mi
8055 N Wellington Ter Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	23d	1	1.03mi
7938 N Maltese Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	1.04mi
9810 N Santee Ter Dunnellon, FL	4.0	2.0	1449	$1,815	$1.25	23d	1	1.07mi
3272 W Fairbank Dr Citrus Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,050	$1.16	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-13
   pricestatus $259,990 Pending 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,888 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,888 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $239,888 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $239,888 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $239,888 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $239,888 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $239,888 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-05-14
   listed $239,888 Active 672-char remark

   Show marketing remark (672 chars)

   Under Construction. Discover Your Dream Home in the Citrus Springs Community! The Prescott Plan features an airy open layout with a seamless transition between the Living Room, a well-equipped Kitchen, and a separate Dining Area, ideal for entertaining. The kitchen stands out with its beautiful cabinetry, Quartz countertops, and stainless steel appliances, including a range with a microwave hood and dishwasher. The serene primary suite includes a private bath with dual vanity sinks and a generous walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a convenient two-car garage, and energy-efficient Low-E insulated dual-pane vinyl windows. A one-year limited home warranty.

10. 2026-05-13
    price $239,888
11. 2026-05-11
    price $244,990
12. 2026-04-24
    price $249,888
13. 2026-04-24
    price $256,990
14. 2026-04-18
    price $249,990
15. 2026-04-07
    price $259,990
16. 2026-03-31
    price $263,990
17. 2026-03-18
    price $249,888
18. 2026-03-09
    price $259,990
19. 2026-02-26
    price $241,888
20. 2026-02-10
    price $239,888
21. 2026-01-27
    price $249,990
22. 2025-12-23
    price $263,990
23. 2025-11-11
    listed $262,990 Active
24. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus $416,000
25. 2024-02-20
    soldstatus $16,000 Closed
26. 2023-11-20
    historical Active Under Contract
27. 2022-12-14
    price $12,900
28. 2022-03-21
    price $13,900
29. 2022-01-05
    listed $11,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$8,404
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,017
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Springs, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,730
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,074
• Household income: $68,939
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 171.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.70%
• Current HPI: 328.2164
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1915.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,888 RACC
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $239,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $244,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $249,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $256,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $249,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $259,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $263,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $249,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $259,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $241,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $239,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $249,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $263,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $262,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $416,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-20 Sold (MLS) $16,000 Beaches MLS
• 2023-11-20 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2022-12-14 Price Changed $12,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $13,900 Beaches MLS
• 2022-01-05 Listed $11,900 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $271 · +93.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.