11019 Mill Creek Way · Fort Myers, FL 33913

$325,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,797 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 2004 8,496 sqft lot Est $489k · 34% under $417/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TURNKEY COACH HOME WITH PRESERVE VIEW IN COLONIAL COUNTRY CLUB! This furnished 2BR + den, 2BA home sits on one of the quietest streets in this gated golf community. Enjoy a bright, open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, coastal colors, and abundant natural light. The remodeled kitchen features white shaker cabinets, quartz counters, glass tile backsplash, stainless appliances (2021), and breakfast bar. Relax on the tiled, screened lanai overlooking the peaceful preserve. The primary suite offers a walk-in closet and ensuite bath with dual vanities and glass shower. Features include solar-tinted windows, neutral tile/carpet, and 1-car garage. Steps to two pools and close to Colonial’s

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in closet
• Glass shower

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• SCREENED LANAI
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• DUAL VANITIES
• GLASS SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with gated access; Community pool; Golf course community; HOA fee paid quarterly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car) with garage door opener; Driveway; 1 covered parking space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Faces southwest; Resale property
• Construction: Block construction; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Screened porch; Porch; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Water purifier; Water softener; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Entrance foyer; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $518 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.3% in Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in FL, #383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 821 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,567/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($110k/yr) (locally 276% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $488,784
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10856 Tiberio Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,823 (+1%)	23mo	$645,000	$354	58
9481 River Otter Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,677 (-7%)	8mo	$405,000	$242	49
10016 Majestic Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,692 (-6%)	11mo	$460,000	$272	47
11060 Yellow Poplar Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,574 (-12%)	21mo	$417,000	$265	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-30,853
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-27,830
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33913

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 821
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$417
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$959
• Net cashflow: $518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,911

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $743	-5% $630	+0% $518	+5% $406	+10% $294
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $338	+0% $518	+5% $698	+10% $879
Rate	-1.0pp $682	-0.5pp $601	base $518	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11012 Mill Creek Way #2205 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$5,500	$3.14	25d	1	0.13mi
10128 Colonial Country Club Blvd #602 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,600	$3.01	25d	1	0.13mi
11029 Mill Creek Way #405 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1749	$2,500	$1.43	25d	1	0.14mi
11011 Mill Creek Way #1307 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,000	$3.63	25d	1	0.15mi
10112 Colonial Country Club Blvd #209 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$5,000	$3.27	25d	1	0.20mi
10121 Colonial Country Club Blvd #1802 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1530	$4,800	$3.14	5d	1	0.20mi
11033 Mill Creek Way #202 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1379	$5,400	$3.92	25d	1	0.21mi
10020 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$2,500	$1.48	25d	1	0.21mi
10111 Colonial Country Club Blvd #2308 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,000	$1.53	13d	1	0.26mi
9661 Hemingway Ln #3207 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1300	$3,900	$3.00	5d	1	0.29mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	17d	1	0.33mi
11075 Lancewood St Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1575	$2,300	$1.46	25d	1	0.33mi
9639 Hemingway Ln #3505 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1234	$4,800	$3.89	25d	1	0.34mi
11041 Iron Horse Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$4,000	$2.36	25d	1	0.44mi
10280 Crepe Jasmine Ln Unit 1546286P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1571	$4,526	$2.88	17d	1	0.46mi
9918 Horse Creek Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,200	$1.46	25d	1	0.50mi
10053 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,400	$4.37	25d	1	0.57mi
10063 Majestic Ave Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1692	$7,100	$4.20	25d	1	0.57mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3402 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$5,500	$3.98	25d	1	0.57mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3403 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$5,400	$3.90	16d	1	0.57mi
9582 Hemingway Ln #3403 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1385	$5,400	$3.90	25d	1	0.57mi
10602 Camarelle Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1690	$5,500	$3.25	25d	1	0.58mi
10514 Bella Vista Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$6,500	$3.57	25d	1	0.69mi
11280 Reflection Isles Blvd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,500	$2.10	25d	1	0.77mi
11541 Stonecreek Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2147	$3,300	$1.54	25d	1	0.82mi
10018 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$2,975	$1.97	25d	1	0.84mi
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	5d	1	0.87mi
10518 Avila Cir Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1466	$6,500	$4.43	25d	1	0.87mi
10025 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1504	$7,100	$4.72	25d	1	0.88mi
10700 Palazzo Way #201 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,000	$3.60	23d	1	0.89mi
10711 Palazzo Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$3,900	$3.10	17d	2	0.92mi
10711 Palazzo Way Unit 203 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1257	$5,300	$4.22	23d	1	0.92mi
10535 Carolina Willow Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,300	$1.78	23d	1	0.94mi
11225 Lithgow Ln Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	2153	$8,000	$3.72	25d	1	0.96mi
10751 Palazzo Way #103 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1235	$5,000	$4.05	25d	1	0.97mi
11593 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1985	$2,800	$1.41	25d	1	1.00mi
11617 Lakewood Preserve Pl Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$3,100	$1.38	17d	1	1.03mi
11619 Meadowrun Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2242	$2,495	$1.11	25d	1	1.04mi
10510 Amiata Way #302 Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1245	$4,900	$3.94	25d	1	1.04mi
10072 Oakhurst Way Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1511	$7,400	$4.90	25d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $417 · $5,004/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $325,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $325,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-03-12
    price $325,000
14. 2025-10-30
    listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$6,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,384
• − Management: −$4,384
• − HOA: −$5,004
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable income: $1,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$420
• After-tax cash flow: $5,797/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Fort Myers

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #383

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 278,598
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,538
• Household income: $110,373
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 276.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.45%
• Current HPI: 221.7115
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.37%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $325,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $339,900 Beaches MLS