3012 Debra Dr · Fultondale, AL 35068

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1973 0.36 ac lot Est $237k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING 4 BEDROOM HOME.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Tidy landscaping
• Bonus parking

Tags

• HARDIE BOARD SIDING
• TIDY LANDSCAPING
• BONUS PARKING
• COMPLETELY FENCED
• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• MASTER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($668/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Fultondale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#51 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fultondale Elementary School (math 6% / reading 30%, grade F, #481 of 627 statewide, top 77%, 982 students, 49% FRL); Fultondale High School (math 3% / reading 23%, grade F, #236 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 635 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,157 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.00%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $236,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2905 Debra Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+5%)	3mo	$225,000	$115	77
3609 Mary Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,749 (-6%)	5mo	$240,000	$137	69
3020 Debra Dr	0.03mi	3/1.0	1,624 (-12%)	8mo	$215,000	$132	68
1928 Walker Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,652 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$121	64
1933 Outwood Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,901 (+3%)	10mo	$243,000	$128	62
1940 Outwood Rd	0.53mi	3/3.0	1,760 (-5%)	10mo	$210,500	$120	54
3026 Forest Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-5%)	8mo	$226,000	$128	52
3632 Charleston Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,739 (-6%)	12mo	$180,000	$104	50
1921 Outwood Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+12%)	10mo	$190,000	$92	49
1830 Hickory Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,793 (-3%)	14mo	$210,000	$117	47
3414 Walker Chapel Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,627 (-12%)	9mo	$220,000	$135	44
1918 Outwood Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-14%)	15mo	$239,900	$151	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-35,428
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-26,693
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35068

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,062/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $124	+0% $56	+5% $-12	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-95	-5% $-19	+0% $56	+5% $131	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $117	base $56	+0.5pp $-6	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2025 Rockwood Ln Fultondale, AL	3.0	2.0	1919	$1,890	$0.98	3d	1	0.85mi
3186 Sayers Rd Fultondale, AL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	1.29mi
465 W Park Dr Fultondale, AL	4.0	2.5	2159	$2,146	$0.99	17d	1	1.30mi
383 W Park Dr Fultondale, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,786	$1.23	3d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2025-09-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-08
   price $239,900
3. 2025-07-10
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2025-01-03
   price $269,900
5. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $160,000 24-char remark

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   CHARMING 4 BEDROOM HOME.

6. 2021-05-12
   listed $157,900 24-char remark

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   CHARMING 4 BEDROOM HOME.

7. 2021-05-12
   soldstatus $160,000

   Show marketing remark (24 chars)

   CHARMING 4 BEDROOM HOME.

8. 2021-05-11
   soldstatus $160,000 Sold
9. 2021-04-08
   historical Contingent
10. 2021-04-04
    listed $157,900 Active
11. 2021-03-31
    historical $157,900
12. 2017-05-18
    price $143,900
13. 2017-04-18
    historical
14. 2017-03-27
    listed $143,500 Active
15. 2016-11-13
    historical
16. 2016-10-29
    price $144,500
17. 2016-08-22
    price $149,500
18. 2016-08-19
    listed $154,990 Active
19. 2012-07-27
    soldstatus $126,000
20. 1994-04-27
    soldstatus $67,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,062 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,062
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$3,511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $1,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fultondale

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #8334

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fultondale, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 8,378
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 8,378
• Household income: $73,750
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 302.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.34%
• Current HPI: 224.4813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+257.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $239,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $249,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $269,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-12 Listed $157,900 SAARMLS
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $160,000 SAARMLS
• 2021-05-11 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-08 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-04 Listed $157,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-31 Coming Soon $157,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-05-18 Price Changed $143,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2017-04-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $143,500 NTREIS
• 2016-11-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-10-29 Price Changed $144,500 NTREIS
• 2016-08-22 Price Changed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2016-08-19 Listed $154,990 NTREIS
• 2012-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $67,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,062 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.