12835 Shining Blue Nile Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$417,400

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,896 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $440k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-family home boasts five bedrooms across two stories. A versatile flex room sits off the foyer and a modern open-concept design brightens the kitchen, dining room and family room. The sprawling owner's suite enjoys privacy on the ground floor with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet, while the remaining four bedrooms and spacious loft are upstairs.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 6 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $417k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $404k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $354k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $354k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $353,522 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $440,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12621 Aura Moonlight Ter	0.08mi	5/2.5	2,896 (0%)	11mo	$383,150	$132	87
12223 Radiant Gem Trl	0.19mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,107 (+7%)	1mo	$395,000	$127	71
12965 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,584 (-11%)	9mo	$351,900	$136	67
13123 Empress Jewel Trl	0.16mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	10mo	$353,200	$137	59
12946 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.03mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,326 (+15%)	10mo	$420,800	$127	58
13134 Empress Jewel Trl	0.19mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	11mo	$404,900	$157	56
13150 Empress Jewel Trl	0.19mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-11%)	12mo	$399,900	$155	56
12915 Iris Amber Cv	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,575 (-11%)	3mo	$392,000	$152	52
13427 Camelot Ct	0.62mi	5/3.5	2,516 (-13%)	0mo	$377,999	$150	45
13411 Commons Ave	0.66mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,582 (-11%)	3mo	$445,414	$173	40
11849 Blue Diamond Trl	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,575 (-11%)	12mo	$460,000	$179	39
11860 Blue Diamond Trl	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,575 (-11%)	12mo	$459,900	$179	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-83,786
• Equity at exit: $62,236

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-120,305
• Equity at exit: $36,089

Cash invested: $116,872 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,535 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,189
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,261/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,651

Max offer price $404,126

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $52	+0% $-92	+5% $-236	+10% $-380
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-231	+0% $-92	+5% $48	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $14	base $-92	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-310

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,350
• Closing costs: $12,522
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3326	$3,500	$1.05	5d	1	0.20mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	17d	1	0.22mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	5d	1	0.32mi
10832 Charlotte Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,899	$0.98	13d	1	1.11mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	13d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 366-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $417,400 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,381
• − Property taxes: −$6,261
• − Insurance: −$2,087
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,394
• − Management: −$3,394
• − Depreciation: −$12,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B