1815 E 51st · New York, NY 11234

$255,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 958 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1929 2,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Subject to Third Party Approval.

Key facts

• 2,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1929

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $697 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $256k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.2%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $72k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $698,382
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2333 Utica Ave	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	960 (+0%)	3mo	$700,000	$729	86
4016 Avenue S	0.32mi	3/1.0	952 (-1%)	3mo	$640,000	$672	82
1354 E 57th St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,030 (+8%)	4mo	$685,000	$665	66
1852 E 37th St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	994 (+4%)	2mo	$608,000	$612	64
1971 Hendrickson St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	4mo	$742,000	$883	60
2064 Coleman St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,050 (+10%)	1mo	$880,000	$838	57
1817 E 37th St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+11%)	2mo	$753,000	$708	56
1492 E 45th St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,036 (+8%)	1mo	$700,000	$676	50
1847 E 34th St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,065 (+11%)	2mo	$818,000	$768	49
1715 E 35th St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+11%)	4mo	$760,000	$714	45
1821 E 34th St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,060 (+11%)	4mo	$880,000	$830	44
1711 East 36th St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (+11%)	4mo	$820,000	$771	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $21,013
• Equity at exit: $38,170

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $157,855
• Equity at exit: $22,134

Cash invested: $71,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11234

• Rents YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 459
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,396 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,443/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,514

Max offer price $255,999

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $841	-5% $769	+0% $697	+5% $624	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $428	-5% $562	+0% $697	+5% $831	+10% $965
Rate	-1.0pp $825	-0.5pp $762	base $697	+0.5pp $630	+1.0pp $563

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,000
• Closing costs: $7,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1455 Royce St Unit 1H Brooklyn, NY	3.0	2.0	1113	$3,700	$3.32	25d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2025-11-12
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-12
   listed $255,999 Active
3. 2021-10-13
   price $600,000
4. 2021-03-18
   historical
5. 2020-01-18
   price $499,000
6. 2020-01-13
   price $499,000
7. 2019-10-20
   listed $540,000 New
8. 2019-10-01
   historical
9. 2019-08-27
   price $545,000
10. 2019-08-21
    price $550,000
11. 2019-08-14
    price $565,000
12. 2019-07-31
    price $575,000
13. 2019-07-31
    price $575,000
14. 2019-07-23
    price $600,000
15. 2019-01-06
    listed $650,000 New
16. 2018-10-01
    historical
17. 2017-09-11
    listed $600,000 New
18. 2016-03-22
    historical
19. 2016-03-17
    listed $299,999 New
20. 2014-11-13
    historical
21. 2014-10-09
    listed $300,000
22. 1998-11-13
    soldstatus $178,000
23. 1981-08-01
    soldstatus $53,636

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,443 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,443 · $537/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,750
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,340
• − Property taxes: −$6,443
• − Insurance: −$1,280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,260
• − Management: −$3,260
• − Depreciation: −$7,447
• Taxable income: $4,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,133
• After-tax cash flow: $7,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 83,187
• Household income: $97,479
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2384.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -667.47%
• Current HPI: 318.0416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.21%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+377.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-12 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $255,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-13 Price Changed $600,000 BNYMLS
• 2021-03-18 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-18 Price Changed $499,000 BNYMLS
• 2020-01-13 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-20 Listed $540,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-27 Price Changed $545,000 BNYMLS
• 2019-08-21 Price Changed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-14 Price Changed $565,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Price Changed $575,000 BNYMLS
• 2019-07-31 Price Changed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-23 Price Changed $600,000 BNYMLS
• 2019-01-06 Listed $650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-11 Listed $600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-17 Listed $299,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-09 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $178,000 Public Records
• 1981-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,636 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,443 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.