40206 Colfax Rd · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$449,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1994 2.35 ac lot $202/sqft · 12% below area Est $511k · 12% under $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Continently located, in a distinctive acreage community, is your beautiful home sitting on a private 2.35 acre lot! Inside you are greeted with a spacious floor plan, upgraded features, and panoramic views of rich natural lighting. Two brand new complete A/C units just installed, one for up and one for downstairs. Outside you have plenty of space to garden and play, with a creek that runs through the side of the property adding adventure and uniqueness. Offering a perfect balance of privacy and comfort, you must see this home for yourself! Magnolia ISD, No MUD, Low tax rate and Minimal maintenance fees! Schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Panoramic views
• Creek
• 2.35 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE 2.35 ACRE LOT
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• CREEK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (41.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (39.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,774 (41.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.01%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $510,986
• List price: $449,000
• Delta: -12.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40214 Roundup Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,325 (+5%)	8mo	$550,000	$237	75
9219 Sendera Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,336 (+5%)	11mo	$499,000	$214	50
40402 Roundup Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,450 (+10%)	19mo	$475,000	$194	46
8910 Diamante Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	2,500 (+12%)	6mo	$655,000	$262	44
9610 Sendera Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,479 (+12%)	7mo	$675,000	$272	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $170,739
• Equity at exit: $404,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $542,593
• Equity at exit: $872,308

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$633 /mo · $7,591/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,035

Max offer price $263,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-794	-5% $-921	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-1,176	+10% $-1,303
Rent	-10% $-1,262	-5% $-1,155	+0% $-1,049	+5% $-942	+10% $-835
Rate	-1.0pp $-822	-0.5pp $-934	base $-1,049	+0.5pp $-1,165	+1.0pp $-1,283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	45d	1	1.38mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	1.41mi
3969 Eagle Nest Lake Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.5	2986	$2,895	$0.97	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $449,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $475,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $475,000 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Continently located, in a distinctive acreage community, is your beautiful home sitting on a private 2.35 acre lot! Inside you are greeted with a spacious floor plan, upgraded features, and panoramic views of rich natural lighting. Two brand new complete A/C units just installed, one for up and one for downstairs. Outside you have plenty of space to garden and play, with a creek that runs through the side of the property adding adventure and uniqueness. Offering a perfect balance of privacy and comfort, you must see this home for yourself! Magnolia ISD, No MUD, Low tax rate and Minimal maintenance fees! Schedule your appointment today!

16. 2026-03-12
    status Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Continently located, in a distinctive acreage community, is your beautiful home sitting on a private 2.35 acre lot! Inside you are greeted with a spacious floor plan, upgraded features, and panoramic views of rich natural lighting. Two brand new complete A/C units just installed, one for up and one for downstairs. Outside you have plenty of space to garden and play, with a creek that runs through the side of the property adding adventure and uniqueness. Offering a perfect balance of privacy and comfort, you must see this home for yourself! Magnolia ISD, No MUD, Low tax rate and Minimal maintenance fees! Schedule your appointment today!

17. 2026-03-03
    status Pending 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Continently located, in a distinctive acreage community, is your beautiful home sitting on a private 2.35 acre lot! Inside you are greeted with a spacious floor plan, upgraded features, and panoramic views of rich natural lighting. Two brand new complete A/C units just installed, one for up and one for downstairs. Outside you have plenty of space to garden and play, with a creek that runs through the side of the property adding adventure and uniqueness. Offering a perfect balance of privacy and comfort, you must see this home for yourself! Magnolia ISD, No MUD, Low tax rate and Minimal maintenance fees! Schedule your appointment today!

18. 2026-03-01
    listed $455,000 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    Continently located, in a distinctive acreage community, is your beautiful home sitting on a private 2.35 acre lot! Inside you are greeted with a spacious floor plan, upgraded features, and panoramic views of rich natural lighting. Two brand new complete A/C units just installed, one for up and one for downstairs. Outside you have plenty of space to garden and play, with a creek that runs through the side of the property adding adventure and uniqueness. Offering a perfect balance of privacy and comfort, you must see this home for yourself! Magnolia ISD, No MUD, Low tax rate and Minimal maintenance fees! Schedule your appointment today!

19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-01-15
    price $455,000
21. 2026-01-01
    listed $496,000 Active
22. 2025-12-31
    historical
23. 2025-10-01
    price $496,000
24. 2025-08-21
    listed $520,000 Active
25. 2025-08-21
    historical
26. 2025-07-08
    listed $554,900 Active
27. 2025-07-07
    historical
28. 2025-05-26
    price $630,000
29. 2025-05-16
    listed $650,000 Active
30. 2025-05-15
    price $650,000
31. 2025-05-15
    price $579,000
32. 2025-05-02
    historical
33. 2025-05-02
    historical
34. 2025-04-30
    price $560,000
35. 2025-04-16
    historical
36. 2016-03-29
    soldstatus Sold
37. 2016-03-29
    soldstatus
38. 2016-03-02
    status Pending, Continue to Show
39. 2016-02-28
    status Pending
40. 2016-02-15
    status Option Pending
41. 2016-01-22
    price $300,000
42. 2015-11-09
    listed $325,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,591 · $633/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,217 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 8.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$7,591
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable loss: −$20,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,020
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+46.2% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $455,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $455,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $496,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $496,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $520,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $554,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Price Changed $630,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listed $650,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $650,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $579,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $560,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2016-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-03-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-03-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-02-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-01-22 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2015-11-09 Listed $325,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,591 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.