17348 Sebrell Ave · Courtland, VA 23837

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 994 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1921 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property needs a little bit of TLC.

Key facts

• Built 1921
• Listed 27 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#186 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton County Public School District (rural): math 43% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #85 of 131 in VA (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Southampton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Southampton County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,180 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $62,459
• Equity at exit: $85,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.59×
• Total profit: $175,388
• Equity at exit: $184,564

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23837

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $110,000 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    This property needs a little bit of TLC.

17. 2026-01-23
    listed $120,000 Active 40-char remark

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    This property needs a little bit of TLC.

18. 2026-01-23
    historical

    Show marketing remark (40 chars)

    This property needs a little bit of TLC.

19. 2025-08-08
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$36/mo · 120.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$895
• − Management: −$895
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $480
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$115
• After-tax cash flow: $1,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103600
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $48,952
• Composite: 46.32/100
• National rank: #2472
• State rank: #85 of 131 in VA

Livability — Courtland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #5801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,414

Population outlook (Southampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,420 people
• By 2030: 16,944 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 15,790 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 14,244 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 11,048 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 7,838 · -55.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 37% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southampton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.5) · D 36.9% · R 62.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.5 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+16.2 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.64%
• Current HPI: 292.9774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $110,000 REINMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $120,000 REINMLS
• 2025-08-08 Listed $120,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.