691 Private Road 1510 · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 0.27 ac lot $152/sqft · 27% above area Est $130k · 27% over $45/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 691 PR 1510, a fully furnished move-in ready home and beautifully maintained 2023 Cavco manufactured home offering 1,088 square feet of living space (68x16). Situated in the sought-after Holiday Villages community on the outskirts of Bandera, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is ideal as a weekend getaway or full-time residence. The open-concept floor plan flows effortlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining area, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Modern features include soft-touch light switches, recessed lighting, and ceiling fans in all bedrooms. The private primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the secondary bedrooms and includes a full bath for added comfort and privacy. Step outside to the secluded front patio and experience the tranquility of Hill Country living with stunning Texas sunsets. Community amenities include a guarded entrance, pool, clubhouse with monthly activities, BBQ areas, and an RV park, creating a resort-style environment in a serene Hill Country setting.

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• Secluded front patio
• Guarded entrance

Tags

• CAVCO MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SECLUDED FRONT PATIO
• GUARDED ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.8% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hondo ISD (town): math 35% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #502 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 531 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.26%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,999
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 26.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,511
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,319
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 531
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,348

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	43d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1029-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

   Welcome to 691 PR 1510, a fully furnished move-in ready home and beautifully maintained 2023 Cavco manufactured home offering 1,088 square feet of living space (68x16). Situated in the sought-after Holiday Villages community on the outskirts of Bandera, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is ideal as a weekend getaway or full-time residence. The open-concept floor plan flows effortlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining area, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Modern features include soft-touch light switches, recessed lighting, and ceiling fans in all bedrooms. The private primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the secondary bedrooms and includes a full bath for added comfort and privacy. Step outside to the secluded front patio and experience the tranquility of Hill Country living with stunning Texas sunsets. Community amenities include a guarded entrance, pool, clubhouse with monthly activities, BBQ areas, and an RV park, creating a resort-style environment in a serene Hill Country setting.

2. 2026-02-03
   listed $165,000 New 1029-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

   Welcome to 691 PR 1510, a fully furnished move-in ready home and beautifully maintained 2023 Cavco manufactured home offering 1,088 square feet of living space (68x16). Situated in the sought-after Holiday Villages community on the outskirts of Bandera, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath property is ideal as a weekend getaway or full-time residence. The open-concept floor plan flows effortlessly into a contemporary kitchen and dining area, perfect for both daily living and entertaining. Modern features include soft-touch light switches, recessed lighting, and ceiling fans in all bedrooms. The private primary suite is thoughtfully separated from the secondary bedrooms and includes a full bath for added comfort and privacy. Step outside to the secluded front patio and experience the tranquility of Hill Country living with stunning Texas sunsets. Community amenities include a guarded entrance, pool, clubhouse with monthly activities, BBQ areas, and an RV park, creating a resort-style environment in a serene Hill Country setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,992/yr (+$166/mo · 194.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$289
• After-tax cash flow: $3,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully furnished, move-in ready manufactured home in the Holiday Villages community is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like painting the exterior and landscaping to enhance curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Add a small garden bed near the front door — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Add a small garden bed near the front door — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hondo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823430
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,344
• Composite: 30.51/100
• National rank: #6215
• State rank: #502 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1318
• US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,594

Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
• Current HPI: 215.0687
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LERA
• 2026-02-03 Listed $165,000 LERA

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.