31177 Grassy Parke Dr · Yulee, FL 32034

$385,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,673 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2004 7,405 sqft lot Est $398k · at est. $39/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well taken care of brick home in established neighborhood. Home has split floor plan, tile and carpet throughout. Plush lawn, fenced in back yard. Covered front and rear patio.

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• Fire pit
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• FLORA PARKE NEIGHBORHOOD
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• FIRE PIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot fronts a city street with asphalt road surface; Lot size approximately 0.17 acres
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $470; Association amenities include a playground

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; On-street parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: 100 Amp electric service; Public sewer; Water available; Sewer connected; Sewer available; Electricity available; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Property is attached; Used as investment
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (Main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; Open floor plan; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Yulee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Yulee Primary School (658 students, 51% FRL); Yulee Middle School (math 73% / reading 61%, grade A-, #80 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 1,202 students, 41% FRL); Yulee High School (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,407 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 949 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $385k implies a 148% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,977 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $398,174
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
96131 Ridgewood Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+0%)	11mo	$345,000	$205	80
23701 Flora Parke Blvd	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,636 (-2%)	10mo	$390,000	$238	79
31044 Grassy Parke Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-4%)	7mo	$392,500	$243	78
96220 Ridgewood Cir	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,742 (+4%)	8mo	$399,000	$229	74
96185 Ridgewood Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (-14%)	4mo	$375,000	$259	64
96098 Piedmont Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,837 (+10%)	5mo	$405,000	$220	64
32402 Sunny Parke Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,882 (+12%)	4mo	$480,000	$255	59
86152 Montauk Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+9%)	7mo	$400,000	$220	56
96313 Ridgewood Cir	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,479 (-12%)	12mo	$350,000	$237	56
30497 Forest Parke Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,878 (+12%)	4mo	$550,000	$293	54
32416 Pond Parke Pl	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+14%)	6mo	$535,000	$282	46
30340 Forest Parke Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+14%)	13mo	$450,000	$237	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,401
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-78,756
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32034

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 949
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,229/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,043

Max offer price $364,980

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $-4	+0% $-113	+5% $-222	+10% $-331
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-228	+0% $-113	+5% $1	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $81	-0.5pp $-15	base $-113	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96013 Waters Ct Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,395	$1.47	5d	1	0.26mi
33410 Sunny Parke Cir Fernandina Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1897	$3,250	$1.71	21d	1	0.44mi
85099 Shinnecock Hills Dr Fernandina Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2201	$3,200	$1.45	18d	1	1.00mi
86195 Courtney Isles Way Yulee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,096	$1.88	2d	9	1.26mi
85041 Christian Way Yulee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,151	$1.95	24d	24	1.26mi
85041 Christian Way Yulee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$2,245	$2.04	2d	20	1.26mi
86088 Meadowridge Ct Yulee, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,600	$1.20	24d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $385,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 690-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $385,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $385,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $385,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 524-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $410,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: +$967/yr (+$81/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,797
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$2,229
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,784
• − Management: −$2,784
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$8,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,958
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,029
• Household income: $98,583
• Rent vs Own: 17.2% rent · 82.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1230.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -576.71%
• Current HPI: 340.2096
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.42%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+121.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $410,000 realMLS
• 2013-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $155,100 Public Records
• 2013-05-06 Sold (MLS) $155,000 AINCAR
• 2013-05-06 Sold (MLS) $155,000 realMLS
• 2012-11-29 Listed $169,000 realMLS
• 2012-11-27 Listed $169,000 AINCAR
• 2007-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $244,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-28 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-08-28 Listed $249,900 realMLS
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.