7232 Santa Barbara St #318 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$599,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1977 3,500 sqft lot $360/sqft · 55% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

As nice as the home you are leaving. Large, updated, with inside and outside living. This home is perfect for a vacation home or full time living. Enjoy the beach, the social activities of the 55+ gated community, and be close to all that you need. Your new home is larger than most Lakeshore Garden's homes with ample outdoor living spaces. Located on a greenbelt with views of the lakes. Come and enjoy the good life at Lakeshore Gardens close to the Beach.

Key facts

• Views of the lakes
• Close to the beach
• 3,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• AMPLE OUTDOOR LIVING SPACES
• VIEWS OF THE LAKES
• CLOSE TO THE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $563k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,996/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($159k/yr) (locally 714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $168k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $563,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.27%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $385,217
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: 55.50%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7207 Santa Barbara St #154	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (-0%)	3mo	$513,300	$310	88
7224 San Benito St	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,600 (-4%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	82
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (-7%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	78
7203 San Luis St #166	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,536 (-8%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	74
7002 San Bartolo St #30	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,781 (+7%)	2mo	$341,500	$192	72
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	70
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,512 (-9%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	69
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,464 (-12%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	69
7313 San Luis St #236	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-7%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	67
7217 San Luis St #173	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	67
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	64
7318 San Luis St	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $74,854
• Equity at exit: $228,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $268,875
• Equity at exit: $322,439

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$749 /mo · $8,985/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,259
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,240

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,011	-5% $804	+0% $597	+5% $390	+10% $183
Rent	-10% $124	-5% $360	+0% $597	+5% $834	+10% $1,071
Rate	-1.0pp $899	-0.5pp $750	base $597	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7064 Whitewater St Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.5	2050	$8,500	$4.15	44d	1	0.21mi
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	44d	1	0.52mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.71mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	17d	1	0.75mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.81mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	44d	1	0.88mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	44d	1	1.04mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$5,359	$5.76	0d	6	1.19mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	44d	1	1.21mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	2d	3	1.25mi
1859 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.5	1950	$7,000	$3.59	0d	1	1.35mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $599,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $599,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-03-20
    listed $599,000 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    As nice as the home you are leaving. Large, updated, with inside and outside living. This home is perfect for a vacation home or full time living. Enjoy the beach, the social activities of the 55+ gated community, and be close to all that you need. Your new home is larger than most Lakeshore Garden's homes with ample outdoor living spaces. Located on a greenbelt with views of the lakes. Come and enjoy the good life at Lakeshore Gardens close to the Beach.

16. 2025-12-14
    status Active
17. 2025-11-22
    status Pending
18. 2025-11-22
    historical
19. 2025-10-29
    listed $619,000 Active
20. 2025-09-01
    historical
21. 2025-05-27
    price $629,000
22. 2025-04-30
    price $649,000
23. 2025-01-30
    listed $669,000 Active
24. 2023-04-04
    soldstatus $560,000 Sold
25. 2023-03-05
    status Pending
26. 2023-03-05
    price $575,500
27. 2023-02-26
    listed $595,000 Active
28. 2018-12-13
    soldstatus $318,500 Sold
29. 2018-10-13
    status Pending
30. 2018-10-05
    price $325,000
31. 2018-09-07
    historical
32. 2018-09-07
    listed $339,900 Active
33. 2018-09-06
    price $339,900
34. 2018-08-01
    listed $389,900 Active
35. 2018-07-31
    historical
36. 2018-07-13
    price $398,000
37. 2018-06-05
    listed $415,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$8,985
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,756
• − Management: −$5,756
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$2,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$605
• After-tax cash flow: $7,771/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+44.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $599,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-14 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-11-22 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $619,000 SDMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $629,000 SDMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $649,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $669,000 SDMLS
• 2023-04-04 Sold (MLS) $560,000 SDMLS
• 2023-03-05 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-03-05 Price Changed $575,500 SDMLS
• 2023-02-26 Listed $595,000 SDMLS
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) $318,500 SDMLS
• 2018-10-13 Pending — SDMLS
• 2018-10-05 Price Changed $325,000 SDMLS
• 2018-09-07 Listed $339,900 SDMLS
• 2018-09-07 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-09-06 Price Changed $339,900 SDMLS
• 2018-08-01 Listed $389,900 SDMLS
• 2018-07-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-07-13 Price Changed $398,000 SDMLS
• 2018-06-05 Listed $415,000 SDMLS