13520 E Whitehorse Trl · Rincon Valley, AZ 85641

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1993 1.07 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Is Country Living At It's Best ,With Beautiful Mt.Views!! This One Acre Lot Won't Last Long.Come Be Apart Of The Peaceful Vail Commun Ity.Perfect For Manufactored Or Custom Build Homes.With Plenty Of Room For Horses! Don't Miss Out On This Increadible Deal.Call Today Kamya 918-1491

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• New flooring
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW APPLIANCES
• FULLY FENCED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wire fencing; Cul-de-sac lot; Dirt road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-216/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Rincon Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#160 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ocotillo Ridge Elementary (math 79% / reading 77%, grade A, #19 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 652 students, 17% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL); Cienega High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 1,913 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $280k implies a 1144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,684 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,413
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-20,882
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $607/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,070

Max offer price $276,718

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10450 S Cutting Horse Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,750	$1.25	2d	1	0.62mi
14037 E Cariole St Vail, AZ	2.0	2.0	1474	$2,000	$1.36	24d	1	0.69mi
13691 E Pocketknife Dr Vail, AZ	2.0	1.5	820	$1,750	$2.13	44d	1	1.16mi
13188 E Mesquite Flat Spring Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,650	$1.16	44d	1	1.18mi
13199 E Alley Spring Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	2d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 674-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $279,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $607 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,847 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,241/yr (+$103/mo · 204.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$607
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$5,195
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,247
• After-tax cash flow: $1,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rincon Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #18098

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rincon Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+903.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,900 MLSSAZ
• 2003-03-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2002-10-23 Listed $48,900 MLSSAZ
• 2001-10-01 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MLSSAZ
• 2001-04-18 Listed $22,500 MLSSAZ
• 1997-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-12 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1997-03-13 Listed $24,400 MLSSAZ
• 1997-02-24 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 1996-12-06 Listed $27,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $607 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.