5018 Belair Rd · Baltimore, MD 21206

$214,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Townhouse public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1923 $156/sqft · 41% above area Est $240k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully remodeled semi‑detached home at 5018 Belair Road offers modern comfort in the heart of Baltimore City. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 updated bath and 1 half bath, and stylish upgrades throughout. The home showcases luxury vinyl plank floors, granite countertops, and a vibrant kitchen backsplash. The kitchen is equipped with new stainless steel appliances, and the home includes a new HVAC system for year‑round comfort. Step outside to enjoy a brand‑new deck overlooking a spacious backyard perfect for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings. A finished basement adds valuable extra living space, making the property truly move‑in ready. With its blend of charm, convenience, and contemporary finishes, this home is an ideal choice for buyers seeking quality and value.

Key facts

• Built 1923
• Listed 131 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $215k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.41%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,510
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -10.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5414 Belair Rd	0.27mi	3/3.0	1,352 (-2%)	1mo	$218,900	$162	76
4114 Moravia Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+1%)	2mo	$169,990	$122	75
4009 Belwood Ave	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-6%)	3mo	$267,000	$205	75
4216 Berger Ave	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (+0%)	4mo	$83,500	$61	62
3802 Echodale Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,515 (+10%)	3mo	$242,500	$160	59
4621 Marx Ave	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,424 (+4%)	6mo	$150,000	$105	58
4235 Seidel Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,280 (-7%)	2mo	$91,000	$71	56
4227 Berger Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+10%)	3mo	$98,123	$65	54
4604 Arabia Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-6%)	3mo	$228,000	$176	50
4400 Asbury Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,270 (-8%)	4mo	$85,000	$67	48
4215 Seidel Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+11%)	2mo	$186,500	$122	47
5026 Edgar Ter	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	5mo	$245,000	$204	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,924
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,491
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21206

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,788/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,834

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4104 Parkwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	24d	1	0.02mi
4023 Belwood Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,995	$1.85	44d	1	0.09mi
4007 Biddison Ln Apt 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,279	$1.28	18d	1	0.13mi
4718 Blue Ridge Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1744	$2,400	$1.38	11d	1	0.26mi
3802 Biddison Ln Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1443	$2,024	$1.40	11d	1	0.33mi
4517 Woodlea Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	3d	1	0.37mi
5424 Belle Vista Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	932	$1,300	$1.39	44d	1	0.46mi
3721 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.49mi
3514 Ailsa Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,200	$1.22	44d	1	0.54mi
4409 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	861	$1,385	$1.61	44d	3	0.57mi
5632 Belair Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$2,100	$1.67	24d	1	0.60mi
4400 Asbury Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,995	$1.57	4d	1	0.65mi
3309 Southern Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	13d	1	0.67mi
4308 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1110	$1,416	$1.28	24d	1	0.70mi
4024 Eierman Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1136	$1,825	$1.61	44d	1	0.71mi
4320 Sheldon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	24d	1	0.73mi
4901 Gunther Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	742	$1,463	$1.97	2d	1	0.74mi
4924 Frankford Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1176	$2,600	$2.21	24d	1	0.79mi
3607 Bayonne Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	24d	1	0.90mi
5305 Moravia Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	679	$1,993	$2.93	2d	1	0.98mi
4111 Century Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$2,500	$1.75	44d	1	1.01mi
3300 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,200	$1.28	44d	1	1.02mi
2911 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	20d	1	1.03mi
5313 Todd Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1280	$1,800	$1.41	16d	1	1.03mi
3305 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,950	$1.38	44d	1	1.04mi
2900 Ailsa Ave Apt 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	4d	1	1.04mi
3028 Kenyon Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,395	$1.30	44d	1	1.05mi
3551 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,358	$1.59	24d	1	1.06mi
4903 1/2 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.06mi
4905 Hamilton Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.06mi
4907 Hamilton Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,699	$1.84	44d	1	1.07mi
2807 Shirey Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	1190	$2,500	$2.10	15d	1	1.08mi
4909 Hamilton Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.0	862	$1,550	$1.80	3d	5	1.09mi
5904 Arizona Ave Unit B Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	925	$1,550	$1.68	24d	1	1.09mi
3573 Shannon Dr Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1493	$2,300	$1.54	18d	1	1.09mi
3566 Dudley Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,800	$2.01	24d	1	1.12mi
2848 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,700	$1.46	44d	1	1.14mi
2735 Chesterfield Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,000	$1.30	11d	1	1.14mi
2837 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1164	$1,675	$1.44	44d	1	1.17mi
2817 Pelham Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	24d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-03-30
    price $214,900 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled semi‑detached home at 5018 Belair Road offers modern comfort in the heart of Baltimore City. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 updated bath and 1 half bath, and stylish upgrades throughout. The home showcases luxury vinyl plank floors, granite countertops, and a vibrant kitchen backsplash. The kitchen is equipped with new stainless steel appliances, and the home includes a new HVAC system for year‑round comfort. Step outside to enjoy a brand‑new deck overlooking a spacious backyard perfect for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings. A finished basement adds valuable extra living space, making the property truly move‑in ready. With its blend of charm, convenience, and contemporary finishes, this home is an ideal choice for buyers seeking quality and value.

15. 2026-02-07
    listed $229,900 Active 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled semi‑detached home at 5018 Belair Road offers modern comfort in the heart of Baltimore City. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 updated bath and 1 half bath, and stylish upgrades throughout. The home showcases luxury vinyl plank floors, granite countertops, and a vibrant kitchen backsplash. The kitchen is equipped with new stainless steel appliances, and the home includes a new HVAC system for year‑round comfort. Step outside to enjoy a brand‑new deck overlooking a spacious backyard perfect for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings. A finished basement adds valuable extra living space, making the property truly move‑in ready. With its blend of charm, convenience, and contemporary finishes, this home is an ideal choice for buyers seeking quality and value.

16. 2026-01-28
    historical $229,900 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    This beautifully remodeled semi‑detached home at 5018 Belair Road offers modern comfort in the heart of Baltimore City. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 updated bath and 1 half bath, and stylish upgrades throughout. The home showcases luxury vinyl plank floors, granite countertops, and a vibrant kitchen backsplash. The kitchen is equipped with new stainless steel appliances, and the home includes a new HVAC system for year‑round comfort. Step outside to enjoy a brand‑new deck overlooking a spacious backyard perfect for kids, pets, or outdoor gatherings. A finished basement adds valuable extra living space, making the property truly move‑in ready. With its blend of charm, convenience, and contemporary finishes, this home is an ideal choice for buyers seeking quality and value.

17. 2026-01-13
    historical
18. 2025-12-03
    price $230,900
19. 2025-10-16
    listed $239,900 Active
20. 2025-09-12
    historical
21. 2025-08-29
    price $259,999
22. 2025-07-01
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2023-10-03
    soldstatus $88,000
24. 2023-08-14
    soldstatus $88,000 Closed
25. 2023-03-15
    status Pending
26. 2023-02-02
    status Active
27. 2022-12-14
    status Pending
28. 2022-10-31
    listed $40,000 Active
29. 2018-09-06
    soldstatus $46,000
30. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $46,000 Sold
31. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus $46,000 Closed
32. 2018-07-26
    status Pending
33. 2018-07-26
    status Contract
34. 2018-07-18
    listed $49,900 Active
35. 2018-07-18
    listed $49,900 Active
36. 2018-02-23
    historical Expired
37. 2018-02-23
    historical
38. 2018-01-25
    listed Active
39. 2018-01-25
    listed $49,000
40. 1985-06-28
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$2,788
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$1,482
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$356
• After-tax cash flow: $2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 48,902
• Household income: $64,531
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2317.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 20% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.83%
• Current HPI: 284.5645
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+571.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $214,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Coming Soon $229,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $230,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $259,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-14 Sold (MLS) $88,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-03-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-14 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-31 Listed $40,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-27 Sold (MLS) $46,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-08-27 Sold (MLS) $46,000 MRIS
• 2018-07-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-26 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-07-18 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-07-18 Listed $49,900 MRIS
• 2018-02-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2018-01-25 Listed $49,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-25 Listed — MRIS
• 1985-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,788 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.