3416 Walnut Rd · Effort, PA 18058

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1974 0.46 ac lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Lovely neighborhood
• Peaceful lake

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• PEACEFUL LAKE
• SERENE SETTING
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SOLID STRUCTURE
• LOVELY NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $111k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $297,216
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3416 Walnut Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	99
1054 Interchange Rd	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+2%)	15mo	$302,000	$258	62
104 Grape Ln	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	7mo	$295,000	$273	57
109 Hemlock Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,237 (+7%)	8mo	$215,000	$174	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $72,431
• Equity at exit: $93,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $190,566
• Equity at exit: $171,488

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18058

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,428

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $526	-5% $485	+0% $444	+5% $403	+10% $362
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $366	+0% $444	+5% $523	+10% $602
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $481	base $444	+0.5pp $407	+1.0pp $369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   status Active
3. 2026-04-14
   price $145,000
4. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-23
   price $194,000
6. 2026-03-14
   listed $209,000 Active
7. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $111,000
8. 2023-03-10
   soldstatus $111,000 Closed 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

9. 2023-02-16
   status Pending 508-char remark

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

10. 2023-02-13
    price $111,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

11. 2023-02-13
    historical 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

12. 2023-02-02
    price $99,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

13. 2023-02-02
    status Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

14. 2023-01-11
    status Pending 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

15. 2023-01-08
    historical $129,900 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Peaceful one floor living in Pennsylvania's beautiful Pocono Mountains. This modular home offers 3 bedrooms, one bathroom and a den/office that leads to a beautiful deck for outdoor entertaining or watching the wildlife on the partially wooded almost 1/2 acre lot. The one car garage is perfect for extra storage or keeping your car free of snow in the winter. All of this in a private community with a lake, playground and other amenities. You can enjoy all this area has to offer year round or seasonally!

16. 1978-06-16
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $3,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$795
• After-tax cash flow: $4,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,884

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 188.6013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+480.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-14 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $145,000 PMAR
• 2026-04-02 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $194,000 PMAR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $209,000 PMAR
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $111,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-10 Sold (MLS) $111,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-13 Price Changed $111,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-02 Price Changed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-02-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-01-08 Coming Soon $129,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1978-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,030 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.