11919 Kingslake Forest Dr · Houston, TX 77044

$160,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 342 Days on market

Built 2002 4,399 sqft lot $144/sqft · at area comps Est $155k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Updated kitchen
• New interior paint

Tags

• GREAT FLOOR PLAN
• PLEASANT NEIGHBORHOOD
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 342 days — a 12% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask is 11575% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 342 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.40%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,987
• List price: $160,999
• Delta: 3.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11850 Greencanyon Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,128 (+1%)	2mo	$185,000	$164	88
11818 Kingslake Forest Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	1mo	$68,000	$57	86
11907 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	3mo	$159,000	$147	84
11954 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	4mo	$125,000	$105	81
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	10mo	$139,900	$130	80
11839 Greencanyon Dr	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+1%)	8mo	$90,000	$79	78
11722 Greenglen Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	1mo	$169,000	$142	76
11715 Greenglen Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	5mo	$140,000	$130	76
11835 Greensbrook Forest Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	11mo	$135,000	$114	73
11915 Greenmesa Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-6%)	10mo	$130,000	$124	71
11738 Greencanyon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	4mo	$159,900	$130	68
11718 Greenmesa Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,036 (-8%)	10mo	$135,000	$130	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-9,375
• Equity at exit: $34,384

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $217
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $45,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,804 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,974/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $160,999

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,250
• Closing costs: $4,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11950 Greensbrook Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	19d	1	0.16mi
11711 Greenglen Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,603	$1.48	2d	1	0.31mi
12211 Haroldson Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	958	$1,619	$1.69	3d	1	0.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,999 Active 342 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,999 Active 341 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,999 Active 340 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,999 Active 339 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,999 Active 337 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,999 Active 333 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,999 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,999 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,999 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,999 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,999 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,999 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,999 Active 324 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    listed $1,379
15. 2026-03-14
    historical $1,379
16. 2026-02-06
    status Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

17. 2026-02-06
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

18. 2026-01-01
    listed $1,379
19. 2025-12-21
    historical $1,379
20. 2025-12-18
    listed $1,379
21. 2025-11-21
    historical $1,379
22. 2025-08-01
    status Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

23. 2025-07-31
    status Pending 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

24. 2025-07-10
    listed $1,379
25. 2025-07-09
    listed $160,999 Active 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    MANY UPDATES! You will love this cute and cozy 3-bedroom 2-bathroom home that has a great floor plan. It is located in a pleasant neighborhood with easy access to N Lake Houston Parkway. This home also features new interior paint, new flooring, an updated kitchen and even a new roof. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

26. 2019-05-30
    soldstatus
27. 2012-05-01
    soldstatus $455,000
28. 2008-12-01
    historical
29. 2008-02-20
    listed $53,500
30. 2000-01-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,974 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,974 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,018
• − Property taxes: −$3,974
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,732
• − Management: −$1,732
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,684
• Taxable loss: −$503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$121
• After-tax cash flow: $2,106/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $1,379 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $1,379 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $1,379 HARMLS
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,379 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,379 HARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Rental Removed $1,379 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed for Rent $1,379 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $160,999 HARMLS
• 2019-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $455,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-20 Listed $53,500 HARMLS
• 2000-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,974 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.