3975 Routes 5 & 20 Site #23 · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$72,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 353 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $79/sqft · 46% above area Est $50k · 46% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

STACK THE SAVINGS! Check out that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount! Comfortable 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Home Ready For Immediate Move-in

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 353 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Canandaigua City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #305 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 353 days — a 12% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $64,152 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 353 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.80%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,000
• List price: $72,900
• Delta: 45.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
230 Crabapple Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	4mo	$50,000	$51	70
227 Crabapple St	0.23mi	3/1.0	980 (+6%)	10mo	$46,000	$47	67
205 Crabapple Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	11mo	$64,900	$61	62
326 Oak Tree Dr Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (+6%)	9mo	$42,500	$43	60
423 Mountain Ash Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	960 (+4%)	5mo	$62,000	$65	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $64,373
• Equity at exit: $10,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.20×
• Total profit: $187,817
• Equity at exit: $6,303

Cash invested: $20,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$382
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $1,034

Break-even live

Break-even rent $638

Max offer price $72,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,225
• Closing costs: $2,187
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $72,900 Active 353 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $72,900 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $72,900 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $72,900 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $72,900 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $72,900 Active 345 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 344 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $72,900 Active 343 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $72,900 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,900 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,900 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,900 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-03-27
    price $77,900 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    STACK THE SAVINGS! Check out that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount! Comfortable 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Home Ready For Immediate Move-in

16. 2025-06-30
    listed $87,900 Active 191-char remark

    Show marketing remark (191 chars)

    STACK THE SAVINGS! Check out that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount! Comfortable 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath Home Ready For Immediate Move-in

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,084
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$364
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$2,121
• Taxable income: $11,962
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,871
• After-tax cash flow: $9,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a clean and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate move-in and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring with a more durable and attractive option will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding will improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring with a more durable and attractive option will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canandaigua City School District
• NCES district ID: 3606330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,375
• Composite: 47.09/100
• National rank: #2335
• State rank: #305 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $77,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-30 Listed $87,900 Zillow