2 Fawn Dr · Milton, NY 12020

$339,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1969 0.94 ac lot Est $365k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful opportunity for 1st time homebuyer. Well maintained home located on private .94 acre lot. Recent improvements include updated kitchen, newly paved driveway, hot water tank and septic. Wood floors and two floor deck overlooking yard with hot tub (negotiable). Large yard great for pets. A must see. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Large deck
• Move-in ready
• Huge lot

Tags

• GEYSER CREST NEIGHBORHOOD
• BALLSTON SPA SCHOOL DISTRICT
• HUGE LOT
• LARGE DECK
• MOVE-IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.94 acre

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Total parking for 4 vehicles; Paved driveway and off-street parking
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Facing direction not specified; Entry level details not specified
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle/asphalt roof; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the first floor; One bedroom in the basement
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished, heated basement; Foyer; Living room; Other room in basement; 10 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in basement (laundry closet)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $339k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-736/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.4% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#652 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milton Terrace Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 391 students, 37% FRL); Ballston Spa Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 945 students, 32% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $289,267 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,256
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Red Coach Trl	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,368 (0%)	12mo	$365,000	$267	86
15 Tamarack Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,368 (0%)	12mo	$360,000	$263	64
50 Deer Run Dr	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,480 (+8%)	6mo	$325,000	$220	62
31 Whipple Tree Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,368 (0%)	10mo	$345,000	$252	62
56 Coachman Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,389 (+2%)	13mo	$420,000	$302	57
135 Goldfinch Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+5%)	6mo	$400,000	$278	54
28 Woodthrush Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-5%)	10mo	$460,000	$353	53
296 Meadowlark Dr	0.65mi	3/3.0	1,362 (-0%)	11mo	$415,000	$305	52
14 Coachman Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,558 (+14%)	1mo	$400,000	$257	48
60 Edmund Dr	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-14%)	10mo	$285,000	$242	48
56 Skylark Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,563 (+14%)	1mo	$541,000	$346	42
277 Rowland St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-14%)	7mo	$174,900	$148	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-43,506
• Equity at exit: $50,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $26,849
• Equity at exit: $29,311

Cash invested: $94,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,131/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,970

Max offer price $328,164

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $35	+0% $-61	+5% $-157	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-176	+0% $-61	+5% $53	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $25	base $-61	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,750
• Closing costs: $10,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 Hutchins Rd Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	2.0	1316	$3,050	$2.32	15d	7	0.34mi
100 Madison Dr Ballston Spa, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1145	$3,266	$2.85	15d	41	0.94mi
2000 Carlton Way Ballston Spa, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1220	$2,520	$2.06	16d	5	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   remarks 491-char remark
2. 2026-06-15
   status $339,000 Pending 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 423-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $339,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,131 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,430 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 5.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,989
• − Property taxes: −$5,131
• − Insurance: −$1,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,777
• − Management: −$2,777
• − Depreciation: −$9,862
• Taxable loss: −$6,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,564
• After-tax cash flow: $828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Milton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #11825

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milton, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 34,937
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+266.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $339,000 Global MLS
• 2023-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records
• 2010-06-04 Sold (MLS) $193,500 Global MLS
• 2010-04-12 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-03-03 Listed $189,900 Global MLS
• 2000-04-30 Sold (MLS) $92,500 Global MLS
• 2000-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records
• 2000-01-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 1999-09-25 Listed $92,500 Global MLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,131 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.