609 N 4th St · Smithfield, NC 27577

$79,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 6,970 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Close proximity to Downtown Smithfield, I-95, US HWY 70, shopping centers, restaurants and 30+/- miles to Raleigh! Great opportunity for a fixer upper and potential rental income!

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 5 days

Tags

• POTENTIAL RENTAL INCOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential zoning
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story house; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Brick/mortar foundation; Shingle roof; City street frontage; Publicly maintained asphalt road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.5% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#259 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $79k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.91%
• DSCR: 2.55
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $23,784
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $56,500
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27577

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,205/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $693

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 Cambridge Pl Smithfield, NC	2.0	2.5	1080	$1,399	$1.30	23d	1	0.83mi
206 Britt St Smithfield, NC	3.0	1.0	1118	$1,650	$1.48	23d	1	1.32mi
510 Crump St Smithfield, NC	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	23d	1	1.41mi
928 Blount St Smithfield, NC	2.0	1.0	672	$950	$1.41	4d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 180-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $79,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,205 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,205 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,205
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $6,874
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $6,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #11380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• City population: 28,354
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 28,354
• Household income: $62,758
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 919.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.11%
• Current HPI: 232.1552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+426.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $79,000 TMLS
• 1997-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,205 · +122.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.