603 Louis Ln · Cove, TX 77523

$269,210

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2025 9,002 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Afton Plan at Windcress – Effortless Living on the Greenbelt Experience easy, one-story living with the Afton Plan by Pulte Homes—featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,777 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space. Nestled on a spacious 9,000+ sqft greenbelt lot, this home offers peaceful views and privacy in the heart of Windcress. Enjoy an open-concept layout with a granite island kitchen, walk-in pantry, and soft-close cabinets that flow into a bright living and dining area—perfect for both everyday comfort and entertaining. All bedrooms are conveniently located on one floor, including a serene primary suite with a walk-in closet and modern bath. With energy-saving fea

Key facts

• One story living
• Soft close cabinets
• Greenbelt lot

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• GREENBELT LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE ISLAND KITCHEN
• WALK IN PANTRY
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $465 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.3% in Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $265,171 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-12,946
• Equity at exit: $40,140

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $31,226
• Equity at exit: $23,276

Cash invested: $75,379 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,412
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $629/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,090

Max offer price $269,210

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $541	+0% $465	+5% $389	+10% $313
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $359	+0% $465	+5% $571	+10% $677
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $534	base $465	+0.5pp $395	+1.0pp $324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,302
• Closing costs: $8,076
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.58mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	2d	1	0.70mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	1.21mi
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	25d	1	1.34mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   listed $269,210 Active
3. 2026-03-06
   historical
4. 2026-02-20
   price $274,990
5. 2025-11-13
   price $284,500
6. 2025-11-04
   status Active
7. 2025-11-04
   price $279,990
8. 2025-09-22
   status Pending
9. 2025-07-22
   listed $302,610 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $629 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,927 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,298/yr (+$358/mo · 683.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,080
• − Property taxes: −$629
• − Insurance: −$1,346
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$7,832
• Taxable income: $1,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$293
• After-tax cash flow: $5,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $269,210 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $274,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $284,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $279,990 HARMLS
• 2025-09-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $302,610 HARMLS