1029 West Daffodil Rd · Twin Lakes, VA 22968

$345,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1998 0.69 ac lot $162/sqft · 8% below area Est $370k · 7% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Showings begin 04/01/ Charming ranch-style home on . 69 acres in the Twin Lakes community of Ruckersville, offering comfortable one-level living with room to expand. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open floor plan with a cozy living area centered around a woodburning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops and flows easily into the main living space, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite includes hardwood floors, a spacious walk-in closet, and an updated bath with a modern vanity. A newly installed barn door leads to the terrace-level basement with its own private entrance, large garage, and flexible space for a home office, gym, guest area, or future bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with an above-ground pool and surrounding deck, perfect for summer days. The neighborhood also offers lake access for fishing and enjoying the outdoors. Home sold in as-is condition.

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-18/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#419 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Nathanael Greene Elementary (math 38% / reading 54%, grade D-, #821 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 353 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $224k; list at $346k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $278,863 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,954
• List price: $345,900
• Delta: -6.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Azalea Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,053 (-4%)	11mo	$331,000	$161	62
793 Geranium Rd	0.17mi	3/3.0	2,433 (+14%)	22mo	$413,500	$170	46
137 E Daffodil Rd	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,840 (-14%)	8mo	$310,000	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-56,216
• Equity at exit: $51,575

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-49,365
• Equity at exit: $29,907

Cash invested: $96,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22968

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,814
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,357/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,790

Max offer price $345,641

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $96	+0% $-1	+5% $-99	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-222	-5% $-112	+0% $-1	+5% $109	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $87	base $-1	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,475
• Closing costs: $10,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
477 Westwood Rd Stanardsville, VA	2.0	2.0	1450	$2,690	$1.86	0d	1	1.18mi
196 Logtrac Rd Stanardsville, VA	4.0	3.0	2848	$2,900	$1.02	22d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $345,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $345,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $345,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $345,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $345,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $345,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $345,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $345,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $345,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $345,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $345,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $345,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $345,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $345,900 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $345,900 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-04-01
    listed $349,900 Active 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Showings begin 04/01/ Charming ranch-style home on . 69 acres in the Twin Lakes community of Ruckersville, offering comfortable one-level living with room to expand. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open floor plan with a cozy living area centered around a woodburning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops and flows easily into the main living space, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite includes hardwood floors, a spacious walk-in closet, and an updated bath with a modern vanity. A newly installed barn door leads to the terrace-level basement with its own private entrance, large garage, and flexible space for a home office, gym, guest area, or future bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with an above-ground pool and surrounding deck, perfect for summer days. The neighborhood also offers lake access for fishing and enjoying the outdoors. Home sold in as-is condition.

20. 2026-03-30
    historical $349,900 922-char remark

    Show marketing remark (922 chars)

    Showings begin 04/01/ Charming ranch-style home on . 69 acres in the Twin Lakes community of Ruckersville, offering comfortable one-level living with room to expand. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features an open floor plan with a cozy living area centered around a woodburning fireplace. The updated kitchen offers granite countertops and flows easily into the main living space, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite includes hardwood floors, a spacious walk-in closet, and an updated bath with a modern vanity. A newly installed barn door leads to the terrace-level basement with its own private entrance, large garage, and flexible space for a home office, gym, guest area, or future bedrooms. Enjoy outdoor living with an above-ground pool and surrounding deck, perfect for summer days. The neighborhood also offers lake access for fishing and enjoying the outdoors. Home sold in as-is condition.

21. 2019-05-15
    listed $234,000
22. 2018-06-15
    soldstatus $224,000
23. 2018-04-10
    listed $225,000
24. 2015-06-25
    soldstatus $210,000
25. 2015-04-04
    listed $200,000
26. 2009-12-31
    historical
27. 2009-05-14
    listed $235,000
28. 2002-06-30
    historical
29. 2002-05-10
    listed $127,000
30. 2001-11-28
    listed $127,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,357 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,836 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$479/yr (+$40/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,376
• − Property taxes: −$2,357
• − Insurance: −$1,730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,677
• − Management: −$2,677
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,063
• Taxable loss: −$6,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $1,426/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Twin Lakes

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #17990

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twin Lakes, VA
• Population (ZIP): 10,603

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.51%
• Current HPI: 270.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+174.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $349,900 CAAR
• 2026-03-30 Coming Soon $349,900 CAAR
• 2019-05-15 Listed $234,000 CAAR
• 2018-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $224,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-10 Listed $225,000 CAAR
• 2015-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2015-04-04 Listed $200,000 CAAR
• 2009-12-31 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2009-05-14 Listed $235,000 CAAR
• 2002-06-30 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2002-05-10 Listed $127,000 CAAR
• 2001-11-28 Listed $127,500 CAAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,357 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.