123 Portage Ln · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,814 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1983 0.51 ac lot Est $332k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful solidly built home nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in the amenity-filled prestige community of Hemlock Farms PA. This home has lots of light, lots of functionality for all 4 seasons, and backs onto state forest land. Family visits are always welcome when you have 2 upstairs bedrooms and a bath, separate from the 1st floor master suite. Laundry conveniently located on main floor. Walk to one of the multiple lakes in the community, or take a short ride to the golf course/country club. Amenities are balanced with safety and efficiency by the community leaders. This home is a doable drive from the city for weekend and summer visits, and perfect for those considering retirement to a tran

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Cul-de-sac
• Multiple lakes

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• STATE FOREST LAND
• MULTIPLE LAKES
• GOLF COURSE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• NATURE RICH SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot is approximately 0.51 acres

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $330k).
• Recommended offer: $325k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.29%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $331,962
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
128 Portage Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,651 (-9%)	3mo	$340,000	$206	78
800 Main Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,962 (+8%)	14mo	$417,000	$213	68
110 Washington Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,944 (+7%)	9mo	$350,000	$180	66
805 Main Ct	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,920 (+6%)	18mo	$401,750	$209	60
120 Portage Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	2,078 (+15%)	22mo	$410,000	$197	53
139 Fairway Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,916 (+6%)	17mo	$350,000	$183	45
107 Franklin Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+10%)	8mo	$320,000	$161	44
119 Washington Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,071 (+14%)	21mo	$309,000	$149	44
102 Roosevelt Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,576 (-13%)	19mo	$270,000	$171	37
103 Fairway Ln	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (-15%)	14mo	$249,000	$161	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $230,249
• Equity at exit: $297,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.91×
• Total profit: $638,535
• Equity at exit: $641,117

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,931 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$445 /mo · $5,344/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$825
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,928

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
113 Portage Ln Milford, PA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,000	$2.86	1d	1	0.10mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	1d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $330,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $330,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $330,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $330,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $330,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $330,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,344 · $445/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,344 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$5,344
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,774
• − Management: −$3,774
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable income: $4,544
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $8,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+106.2% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $330,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $350,500 PWMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $352,500 PWMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $356,500 PWMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $359,500 PWMLS
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $364,500 PWMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $369,500 PWMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $361,500 PWMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $364,500 PWMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $369,500 PWMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $379,000 PWMLS
• 2024-04-24 Price Changed $382,500 PWMLS
• 2024-04-12 Price Changed $384,000 PWMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $389,000 PWMLS
• 2024-03-16 Price Changed $409,500 PWMLS
• 2024-03-01 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $399,500 PWMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $389,000 PWMLS
• 2024-01-27 Listed $369,000 PWMLS
• 2023-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-31 Sold (MLS) $290,000 PWMLS
• 2023-07-31 Sold (MLS) $290,000 PWMLS
• 2023-07-01 Pending — PWMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2023-06-28 Listed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2001-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,344 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.