431 Hampton Ave · Crystal Lake, FL 33801

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1959 6,625 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Unlock the potential at 431 Hampton Avenue in the heart of Central Lakeland! This solid 3-bedroom, 1-bath block home offers 1,075 square feet of living space and is a prime opportunity for investors or savvy buyers ready to transform it into a standout resale or long-term rental. Situated in an established neighborhood, this property is just minutes from Downtown Lakeland, Lake Parker, shopping, dining, and offers convenient access to both Tampa and Orlando via nearby major roadways. Lakeland continues to experience strong growth and demand, making this an ideal time to invest in a centrally located asset with upside. The home does require renovation,

Key facts

• Lake parker
• Central lakeland
• 6,625 sq ft lot

Tags

• CENTRAL LAKELAND
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN LAKELAND
• LAKE PARKER
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO TAMPA
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO ORLANDO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: R-2; Lot size approximately 0.15 acres; Listing is marked third-party; Property condition: Fixer
• Financial info: Tax information available but excluded per instructions
• HOA & community: No HOA/association; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built/condition noted as fixer
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Paved lot and road access; Lot located in county

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#620 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,071
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $20,090
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2184 Colonial Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,645	$1.46	23d	1	0.16mi
510 Longfellow Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,825	$1.39	3d	1	0.37mi
2023 Tennyson St Unit 2025 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,095	$1.24	23d	1	0.57mi
350 Bonnyview Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,600	$1.25	23d	1	0.63mi
2155 Lone Oak Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,100	$1.41	23d	1	0.64mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	3d	1	0.68mi
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	10d	1	0.90mi
1233 Honeytree Ln E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1355	$2,250	$1.66	3d	1	0.91mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr #112 Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1482	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	1.05mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	14d	1	1.08mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	23d	1	1.08mi
2929 Nine Iron Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	3d	1	1.08mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr #5 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1482	$1,695	$1.14	23d	1	1.08mi
1736 E Fern Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	820	$1,325	$1.62	23d	1	1.08mi
2839 8 Iron Dr Unit 2841 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,397	$1.55	23d	1	1.15mi
2830 Skyview Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,175	$1.38	23d	1	1.17mi
1836 N Crystal Lake Dr Unit 3 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1158	$1,495	$1.29	14d	1	1.17mi
1885 N Crystal Lake Dr Apt 7 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	23d	1	1.19mi
1108 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	3d	2	1.22mi
2402 Kiwanis Ave Unit 1258725P Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1194	$3,262	$2.73	14d	1	1.23mi
1505 Goodyear Ave Unit 17 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	792	$950	$1.20	23d	1	1.24mi
1104 Bartow Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,225	$1.61	23d	1	1.25mi
2524 Kiwanis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1468	$1,670	$1.14	12d	1	1.26mi
1969 Crystal Grove Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,415	$2.46	3d	8	1.42mi
521 Skyline Dr E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,300	$1.83	3d	1	1.46mi
1922 Crystal Grove Dr #1922 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,547	$1.53	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $149,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,237 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$482/yr (+$40/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $2,661
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $4,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal Lake

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #620
• US rank: #12023

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crystal Lake, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 33,460
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.