127 Weld St · Rochester, NY 14605

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1900 6,534 sqft lot Est $72k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity in a location with a ton of upside near the Inner Loop and Rochester Public Market. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath single family home offers generous living space with beautiful hardwood floors throughout. Enjoy the covered front porch and fully fenced yard, adding both charm and privacy. Great option for an owner occupant buyer or an investor!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Fully fenced yard
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• GENEROUS LIVING SPACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary bedroom; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $930 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,971/mo this rent would consume 112% of the median local household income ($21k/yr) (locally 1108% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $825 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $100k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,401 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.89%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,380
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 Ontario St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+2%)	7mo	$45,000	$43	85
26 Skuse St St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,087 (+5%)	2mo	$70,000	$64	68
314 Scio St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+13%)	15mo	$69,200	$59	61
310 Union St N	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,027 (-1%)	22mo	$72,000	$70	56
5 Dake St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	947 (-8%)	4mo	$86,000	$91	51
120 3rd St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+8%)	10mo	$87,500	$79	46
171 First St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,180 (+14%)	10mo	$125,000	$106	37
19 6th St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (+4%)	22mo	$45,000	$42	36
52 4th St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,179 (+14%)	21mo	$120,000	$102	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $60,230
• Equity at exit: $33,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $146,387
• Equity at exit: $43,434

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14605

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,971 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $740/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$414
• Net cashflow: $930

Break-even live

Break-even rent $794

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 Alexander St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,425	$1.78	3d	1	0.23mi
395 Alexander St Unit UN12 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1226	$2,200	$1.79	14d	1	0.26mi
152 Gibbs St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,875	$1.97	14d	3	0.34mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 130 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,875	$1.88	10d	1	0.36mi
128 Gibbs St Unit 136 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	10d	1	0.36mi
200 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	936	$2,481	$2.65	44d	1	0.39mi
111 East Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	614	$1,900	$3.09	44d	1	0.50mi
49 East Ave Apt 212 Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	961	$2,572	$2.68	3d	1	0.53mi
474 East Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$2,800	$2.49	23d	1	0.53mi
14 Franklin St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1345	$3,477	$2.59	3d	8	0.55mi
260 E Main St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$2,999	$2.62	3d	14	0.60mi
636 University Ave Apt 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	44d	1	0.61mi
47 Savannah St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,025	$2.61	21d	6	0.63mi
21 Rundel Park Unit 2 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,099	$1.68	19d	1	0.70mi
194 E Main St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,095	$2.39	14d	1	0.70mi
183 E Main St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	1142	$2,870	$2.51	10d	28	0.72mi
733 University Ave #3 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	0.76mi
80 St Paul St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1024	$1,935	$1.89	3d	3	0.76mi
147 5th St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1289	$1,950	$1.51	21d	1	0.77mi
21 Arnold Park Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,425	$1.90	3d	15	0.77mi
9 Rowley St Unit 3 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,550	$1.60	23d	1	0.84mi
250 Anderson Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	832	$1,675	$2.01	44d	1	0.88mi
254 Anderson Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	816	$975	$1.19	23d	1	0.89mi
102 Court St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,570	$2.70	3d	11	0.89mi
209 S Goodman St Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	44d	1	0.89mi
123 Griffith St Unit 6 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	21d	1	0.94mi
14 Beechwood St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	23d	1	0.95mi
11 Maria St Unit 1 DN Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	44d	1	1.00mi
39 State St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1154	$3,500	$3.03	3d	8	1.02mi
55 Exchange Blvd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,695	$2.83	3d	28	1.02mi
933 University Ave Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1295	$3,815	$2.94	3d	12	1.03mi
25 Trust St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1003	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.03mi
52 Frances St Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1256	$1,595	$1.27	44d	1	1.04mi
30 W Broad St Unit 307 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	911	$1,950	$2.14	44d	1	1.06mi
500 Garson Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	740	$1,050	$1.42	3d	1	1.08mi
13 S Fitzhugh St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	890	$2,098	$2.36	10d	2	1.10mi
495 S Clinton Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	14d	1	1.10mi
195 Parsells Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1413	$1,265	$0.90	3d	1	1.10mi
65 W Broad St Unit 808 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	796	$1,679	$2.11	14d	1	1.11mi
19-21 Cornell St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $740 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,214 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$474/yr (+$40/mo · 64.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,650
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$740
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,892
• − Management: −$1,892
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $10,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,430
• After-tax cash flow: $8,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 432,803
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 11,783
• Household income: $21,201
• Rent vs Own: 74.4% rent · 25.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1108.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 11% White 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 29% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Current HPI: 207.359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+399.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,900 UNYREIS
• 2005-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $740 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.