4123 State Rt 28 · Middleville, NY 13350

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 682 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 2.00 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2024-Built Ranch on 2 Acres Enjoy peaceful country living in this beautiful ranch home built in 2024, situated on 2 private acres with gorgeous scenic views. Nestled in a secluded setting, this property offers the perfect combination of privacy, comfort, and modern living. The open and inviting layout is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, while the expansive lot provides plenty of space to relax and enjoy nature. Whether you're looking for a quiet retreat or a place to call home, this property offers the tranquility and beauty of country living at its finest.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• 2024 built ranch
• 2 acres

Tags

• 2024 BUILT RANCH
• 2 ACRES
• SCENIC VIEWS
• SECLUDED SETTING
• OPEN LAYOUT
• EXPANSIVE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 2 acres (dimensions 100 x 100)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Flag lot
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Combined living/dining area; Bedroom on main level; Main-level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-627/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,105 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• West Canada Valley Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #296 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $124,510 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $78,328
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.56×
• Total profit: $233,319
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $142,334

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $0	+0% $-52	+5% $-104	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-101	+0% $-52	+5% $-3	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-14	base $-52	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 585-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $149,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$769
• After-tax cash flow: $142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2024-built ranch home on 2 acres offers a good condition with a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. Painting the exterior and making minor landscaping improvements can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the property's aesthetic and increase its value.
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Adding a small shed or storage unit can increase storage space and improve the property's functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the property's aesthetic and increase its value. ↑
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Adding a small shed or storage unit can increase storage space and improve the property's functionality, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Canada Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630600
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $54,416
• Composite: 47.76/100
• National rank: #2232
• State rank: #296 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middleville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1105
• US rank: #22577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $149,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $155,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $155 CNYIS