200 Lockwood St · Guernsey, IA 52221

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity, Fix and flip or starter home. Tree bed one bath home. Selling as is.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#848 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District (rural): math 72% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #101 of 289 in IA (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Poweshiek County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Poweshiek County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.19%
• DSCR: 4.17
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $48,846
• Equity at exit: $19,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $112,578
• Equity at exit: $32,224

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52221

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $432/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $331

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    status Active
17. 2026-04-03
    status Pending 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, Fix and flip or starter home. Tree bed one bath home. Selling as is.

18. 2026-04-03
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, Fix and flip or starter home. Tree bed one bath home. Selling as is.

19. 2026-01-08
    listed $39,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, Fix and flip or starter home. Tree bed one bath home. Selling as is.

20. 2026-01-08
    listed $39,900 Active 98-char remark

    Show marketing remark (98 chars)

    Great investment opportunity, Fix and flip or starter home. Tree bed one bath home. Selling as is.

21. 2025-11-02
    price $44,900
22. 2025-11-02
    price $44,900
23. 2025-09-17
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $432 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $529 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$432
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,865
• After-tax cash flow: $6,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcom Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1905490
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,307
• Composite: 61.79/100
• National rank: #734
• State rank: #101 of 289 in IA

Livability — Guernsey

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #848
• US rank: #19471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guernsey, IA
• Population (ZIP): 328

Population outlook (Poweshiek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,601 people
• By 2030: 18,342 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 17,944 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 18,029 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 19,945 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 22,637 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Native American 7%
• Common ancestry: English 7% Lithuanian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Poweshiek

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+6.8 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Current HPI: 107.3015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — DMMLS
• 2026-04-03 Pending — IAR
• 2026-04-03 Pending — DMMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $39,900 IAR
• 2026-01-08 Listed $39,900 DMMLS
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $44,900 IAR
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $44,900 CRAAR, CDRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $49,900 IAR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $432 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.