2002 Gunston Dr · Suffolk, VA 23435

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · Condo public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2004 $159/sqft · 13% below area Est $331k · 9% under $225/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful contemporary condo with a 2nd floor; Spacious 3-bedroom 2-full bath with garage is waiting for you move in to! This charming well kept condo offers over 1,800sf; Large family room; Eat-in kitchen; Flex space could be Sunroom or Formal Dining Room; Large Primary Suite has tray ceiling and recessed lighting plus a gorgeous tiled shower and double vanity; Roof replaced in 2021; Seller offering a 1-year Home Warranty not to exceed $650 of buyer selection. Obici Hospital and the YMCA are about 1.5-miles away. Enjoy the amenities of shopping near by and being close to the interstate.

Key facts

• $225 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($381/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.6%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $250k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $279,308 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.45%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,620
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-31,725
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $42,587
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23435

• Rents YoY: 10.6%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,018/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$225
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,753

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $117	+0% $32	+5% $-53	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-79	+0% $32	+5% $142	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $108	base $32	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2005 Waterside Dr Suffolk, VA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1657	$3,068	$1.85	2d	1	0.12mi
1001 Hillpoint Blvd Suffolk, VA	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,680	$1.22	44d	1	0.25mi
1007 Robinson Rd Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1584	$3,400	$2.15	8d	1	0.30mi
3061 Godwin Blvd Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$3,017	$2.88	2d	17	0.53mi
128 Majestic Dr Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1680	$2,150	$1.28	17d	1	0.60mi
245 Wexford Dr W Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,285	$1.52	44d	1	0.65mi
124 Mistral Ter Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.0	2297	$2,850	$1.24	24d	1	0.67mi
129 Corcoran Ln Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1874	$3,000	$1.60	24d	1	0.77mi
306 Gauntlet Way Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1906	$2,950	$1.55	18d	1	0.90mi
108 Poplar Grove Cres Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,000	$1.03	24d	1	0.91mi
220 Abingdon Cir Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,000	$1.27	44d	1	0.93mi
101 Emerald Ct Suffolk, VA	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,700	$1.29	5d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $225 · $2,700/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-04-23
    price $300,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Beautiful contemporary condo with a 2nd floor; Spacious 3-bedroom 2-full bath with garage is waiting for you move in to! This charming well kept condo offers over 1,800sf; Large family room; Eat-in kitchen; Flex space could be Sunroom or Formal Dining Room; Large Primary Suite has tray ceiling and recessed lighting plus a gorgeous tiled shower and double vanity; Roof replaced in 2021; Seller offering a 1-year Home Warranty not to exceed $650 of buyer selection. Obici Hospital and the YMCA are about 1.5-miles away. Enjoy the amenities of shopping near by and being close to the interstate.

14. 2026-03-26
    listed $349,900 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Beautiful contemporary condo with a 2nd floor; Spacious 3-bedroom 2-full bath with garage is waiting for you move in to! This charming well kept condo offers over 1,800sf; Large family room; Eat-in kitchen; Flex space could be Sunroom or Formal Dining Room; Large Primary Suite has tray ceiling and recessed lighting plus a gorgeous tiled shower and double vanity; Roof replaced in 2021; Seller offering a 1-year Home Warranty not to exceed $650 of buyer selection. Obici Hospital and the YMCA are about 1.5-miles away. Enjoy the amenities of shopping near by and being close to the interstate.

15. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $250,000
16. 2022-04-05
    status Under Contract
17. 2022-03-28
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2022-03-25
    listed $239,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,018 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,018 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,018
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$2,700
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $1,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 33,721
• Household income: $111,700
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1074.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 36% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.93%
• Current HPI: 162.3775
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.61%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $300,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $349,900 REINMLS
• 2022-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-05 Pending — REINMLS
• 2022-03-28 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2022-03-25 Listed $239,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,018 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.