2650 Jefferson Ave · Ogden, UT 84401

$2,950,000

558 bd · 324.0 ba · 14,569 sqft · MultiFamily · 80 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition 1.08 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 18 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Marcus & Millichap is pleased to present Smith Villas, an 18-unit multifamily community located in a central Ogden location near Weber State University, Historic 25th Street, and Hill Air Force Base, supporting consistent rental demand from a diverse tenant base. The property features a predominantly two-bedroom unit mix and offers a compelling value-add opportunity, with in-place rents well below market. Square footage figures are provided as a courtesy estimate only. Buyer is advised to obtain an independent measurement. Please do not disturb tenants. Call or text for more information, including financials, the offering memorandum, or to schedule a tour.

Key facts

• 1.08 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 80 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Home design: Three-story building
• Construction: Built/standing construction
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 1.08 acres; Zoned R-3EC

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total units: 18
• Interior features: Currently used for residential purposes; Building is built and standing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 18 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $2.95M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-178/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.49M (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.17M (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.17M (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#19 in UT, #810 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Ogden City District (urban): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #72 of 80 in UT (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Madison School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #570 of 585 statewide, top 98%, 321 students, 99% FRL); Mound Fort Junior High (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 138 statewide, top 85%, 627 students, 98% FRL); Ogden High (math 15% / reading 37%, grade F, #137 of 171 statewide, top 81%, 1,128 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 77% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,630 units permitted in Weber County in 2024 (521 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $21,742/mo this rent would consume 323% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 1027% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $20k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $88k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weber County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.77M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $2,174,200 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-694,583
• Equity at exit: $439,855

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-917,104
• Equity at exit: $255,062

Cash invested: $826,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84401

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 203.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,470
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,688 /mo · $44,250/yr
• Insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,566
• Net cashflow: $-3,211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $25,806

Max offer price $2,485,420

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,172	-5% $-2,191	+0% $-3,211	+5% $-4,230	+10% $-5,249
Rent	-10% $-4,928	-5% $-4,069	+0% $-3,211	+5% $-2,352	+10% $-1,493
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,725	-0.5pp $-2,460	base $-3,211	+0.5pp $-3,975	+1.0pp $-4,753

18-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 18× units	2	1.5	$21,744
Total (18 units)			$21,742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $737,500
• Closing costs: $88,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,950,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,950,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $2,950,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $260,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$165,246
• − Property taxes: −$44,250
• − Insurance: −$14,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,872
• − Management: −$20,872
• − Depreciation: −$85,818
• Taxable loss: −$90,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$21,817
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers a compelling value-add opportunity with in-place rents well below market.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Resale Install new flooring — Improves aesthetics and value
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Improves aesthetics and value ↑
• Resale Update bathrooms — Modernizes and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ogden City District
• NCES district ID: 4900720
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,974
• Composite: 23.76/100
• National rank: #7818
• State rank: #72 of 80 in UT

Livability — Ogden

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #810

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ogden, UT
• County: Weber County · 260,557 people
• City population: 152,611
• Metro: Ogden-Clearfield, UT
• Population (ZIP): 48,303
• Household income: $80,758
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1027.0

Population outlook (Weber County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 274,329 people
• By 2030: 288,577 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 314,848 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 338,710 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 384,412 · +40.1%
• By 2100: 409,305 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weber

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 36.8% · R 60.3% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+22.7 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.29%
• Current HPI: 302.8024
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.43%
• Metro: Ogden-Clearfield, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $2,950,000 WFRMLS