202 Blackhawk Dr · Abilene, TX 79602

$390,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,074 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 10,846 sqft lot Est $409k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 beds • 3 baths • Wylie ISD East • No carpet • Quartz countertops • Custom shutters • Corner lot Set on a fenced corner lot in Abilene’s Wylie ISD East area, 202 Blackhawk Road pairs everyday function with standout finishes. The 4-bedroom, 3-bath layout offers about 2,113 sq ft with wood-look tile flooring throughout, giving every main space a clean, cohesive feel. The kitchen features quartz countertops and a practical flow for cooking, serving, and gathering. Custom shutters add a polished touch, while the whole-home water softener is a valuable comfort upgrade. Outdoor features include a fully fenced yard, sprinkler system, and corner-lot setting w

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Fenced yard
• Custom shutters

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM SHUTTERS
• FENCED YARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• WHOLE-HOME WATER SOFTENER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rain/freeze sensors (energy efficiency)
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with annual fee of $250 (management fees included); managed by Goodwin & Co.

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces side); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Municipal utility district; Sidewalk; Community mailbox
• Home design: Single-family home; One story; Residential property; Not attached to another unit; Built in 2022; Preowned
• Construction: Brick, rock/stone, and siding exterior; Composition roof; Has basement
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Covered patio/porch; Wood fencing; Corner landscaped lot with sprinkler system; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Built-in cabinets; Farm sink; Natural stone/granite countertops; Pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with built-in cabinets, jetted tub, separate shower, separate vanities, and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level (two feature walk-in closets; one has built-in cabinets and an ensuite bath)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Flat screen wiring; High-speed internet available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Plantation shutters
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Separate utility room with built-in cabinets and drip/dry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-397 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 6.8% in Abilene — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,846 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.36%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $408,578
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 Pilgrim	0.29mi	4/2.0	2,230 (+8%)	0mo	$460,000	$206	70
7201 Raven Ct	0.63mi	4/2.0	2,034 (-2%)	1mo	$425,000	$209	62
7633 Wildflower Way	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-15%)	1mo	$348,000	$197	62
7621 Wildflower Way	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-15%)	2mo	$352,000	$200	61
334 Mill Creek Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,095 (+1%)	2mo	$384,900	$184	60
7718 Sawdust Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (-15%)	1mo	$351,250	$199	58
318 Mill Creek Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,976 (-5%)	0mo	$384,999	$195	55
7726 Sawdust Trl	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,781 (-14%)	1mo	$355,000	$199	54
256 Carriage Hls	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,769 (-15%)	4mo	$335,000	$189	53
7414 Morning Glory Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,797 (-13%)	5mo	$325,000	$181	52
301 Southlake Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,904 (-8%)	6mo	$347,500	$183	43
7149 Mcleod Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,834 (-12%)	4mo	$339,900	$185	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-71,258
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-16,290
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$714 /mo · $8,571/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $-397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,725

Max offer price $319,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-287	+0% $-397	+5% $-508	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-524	+0% $-397	+5% $-270	+10% $-143
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-298	base $-397	+0.5pp $-498	+1.0pp $-601

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7627 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$8,900	$5.57	14d	1	0.11mi
7717 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,375	$2.25	12d	1	0.13mi
7646 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	21d	1	0.13mi
7709 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	0.13mi
7650 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	14d	1	0.14mi
7625 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,300	$1.83	5d	1	0.17mi
7949 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.23mi
342 Pilgrim Rd Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	2613	$3,500	$1.34	5d	1	0.27mi
385 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	4d	1	0.27mi
8001 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.30mi
385 Kristi Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	4d	1	0.30mi
8009 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.31mi
405 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,895	$2.01	8d	1	0.31mi
409 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,895	$2.05	6d	1	0.31mi
273 Martis Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$3,200	$1.93	14d	1	0.42mi
331 Sophia Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,195	$1.96	5d	1	0.48mi
7328 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	12d	1	0.51mi
7326 Mountain View Rd Unit 7328 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	12d	1	0.52mi
7319 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$4,000	$2.66	44d	1	0.53mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	25d	1	0.56mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	4d	1	0.78mi
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$5,500	$3.04	0d	1	0.81mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	4d	1	1.12mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	8d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $390,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active Option Contract 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $390,000 Active Option Contract 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active Option Contract 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active Option Contract 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $390,000 Active Option Contract 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   remarks 663-char remark
8. 2026-06-03
   listed $390,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,571 · $714/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,571 · $714/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,671
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$8,571
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,094
• − Management: −$3,094
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$11,481
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,755
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 85/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for further value through minor exterior and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $390,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+119.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,571 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.